Pavel K. Baev
Dr. Pavel K. Baev is a senior researcher at the International Peace Research Institute, Oslo (PRIO).
Contact Pavel K. Baev
Articles by Pavel K. Baev
Perplexed Vladimir Putin Reckons With Outcome of US Elections
Executive Summary: The Kremlin is hopeful that the new US President-elect Donald Trump may disrupt Western unity and potentially ease pressure on Russia, especially concerning sanctions and the war in
Putin and Kim Look for Opportunities Amid US Elections Turmoil
Executive Summary: Russia is leveraging the United States’ preoccupation with its presidential election to advance its strategic interests, bringing in additional military support from North Korea with the arrival of
Putin’s Much Ado About the BRICS Summit
Executive Summary: The BRICS summit, held in Kazan, was met with great fanfare in Russian propaganda. Propagandists hailed it for its “epochal” significance. Moscow commentators promoted the idea that the
No Shortcut to Hard Road to Peace in Ukraine
Executive Summary: Ukraine has intensified its behind-the-scenes multilateral political maneuvering, as evidenced by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s promotion of his own victory plan, despite little change on the battlefield. Zelenskyy’s
Unwinnable Wars, Risks of Escalation, and the Nuclear Taboo
Executive Summary: This year’s Nobel Peace Prize was awarded to Hiroshima and Nagasaki survivors, underscoring the importance of preserving the international norm against the first use of nuclear weapons amid
Russia’s Eroding Influence in the Middle East
Executive Summary: The first anniversary of the war in Gaza has revealed the near-total disappearance of Russia’s influence in the Middle East, as it has not been able to partner
Putin’s Nuclear Blackmail Goes Doctrinal
Executive Summary: Russian President Vladimir Putin announced revisions to Russia’s nuclear doctrine on September 25 that are neither radical nor surprising. The timing of Putin’s heavy hints and direct threats
Legacy of Putin’s War on Terror Weighs Heavily on Modern Russia
Executive Summary: Russian President Vladimir Putin was propelled into power amid a series of deadly terrorist attacks in Russia in the 1990s. His tactics to combat this “war on terror”
Moscow Takes the Measure of Western Vacillations
Executive Summary: Russian President Vladimir Putin is attempting to distort Western discussions about Ukrainian use of long-range weapons on Russian soil, launching a fresh wave of escalatory threats should Western
Putin Cannot Escape War in Ukraine Amid Travels to Far East
Executive Summary: The Eastern Economic Forum, held in Vladivostok from September 3 to 6, demonstrated Moscow’s shortcomings in its commitment to pivoting its economic policy toward the Asia-Pacific, especially China.
Putin Puts Forth Resolute Indifference to Kursk Debacle
Executive Summary: Russian President Vladimir Putin has shown little initiative in combating Ukraine’s incursion into Russia’s Kursk oblast, instead defining Russia’s defense as a counter-terrorist operation. Ukraine has succeeded in
Prisoner Exchanges and the Prospects for Peace Talks
Executive Summary: The timing of the recent prisoner exchanges between Russia and the West has reawakened notions of negotiating a ceasefire with the Kremlin, though Moscow has shown no willingness
Russian Intrigues in Middle East Surge
Executive Summary: Russian President Vladimir Putin summoned Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad to Moscow for a secret meeting the same day Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu addressed the US Congress, demonstrating
Moscow Seeks to Drive ‘Peace’ Wedge into Trans-Atlantic Unity
Executive Summary: As new peace proposals are published, Russian President Vladimir Putin does not appear to be any closer to accepting negotiations with Ukraine to conduct a ceasefire or end
Russia Struggles to Counter Upgrade of NATO-Ukraine Compact
Executive Summary: The recent North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) summit in Washington yielded many practical decisions on building Western military capabilities and sustaining offensive operations in Ukraine through bilateral security
Russia Seeks to Maintain Battlefield Initiative on Eve of NATO Summit
Executive Summary: Russian President Vladimir Putin continues to assert that Russia maintains the initiative in its war against Ukraine while facing a deteriorating economy, significant manpower shortages, and strengthened Western
Putin’s Asia Tour Exposes Russia’s Rapid Degradation From Long War
Executive Summary: Russian President Vladimir Putin visited North Korea and Vietnam to neutralize the diplomatic outcomes of the peace summit in Switzerland and prove Russia’s ability to maintain a high
Ukraine Peace Summit Brings Disappointment and Hope
Executive Summary: The Ukraine peace summit in Switzerland did not provide much substantive progress in signing a peace agreement, but the wide participation of the international community demonstrated a sharp
Normandy Sends a Powerful Message to Putin’s Posturing
Executive Summary: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s attendance at the 80th anniversary of the Allied landing in Normandy highlighted Ukrainian and Western resolve against the real and immediate Russian threat to
Moscow Seeks to Aggravate Western Concerns About Long-Distance Ukrainian Strikes
Executive Summary: The Kremlin is trying to impede any Western resolve in allowing long-distance Ukrainian strikes on military targets within Russia to avoid destabilizing energy infrastructure and disrupting the lives
Russia Attempts New Anti-Peace Offensive
Executive Summary: The Kremlin has released a series of “leaks” implying that Russian President Vladimir Putin is ready to freeze hostilities in his war against Ukraine. The release likely occurred
‘Long War’ Drives Putin’s Cadre Reshuffling
Executive Summary: Russian President Vladimir Putin has proven unwilling to trust anyone outside his inner circle and failed to promote younger politicians–effectively demanding that Russia’s aging political elite continue serving
Week of Ceremonies Marks Wobbly Start for Putin’s New Presidential Term
Executive Summary: Russian President Vladimir Putin began his new presidential term by holding a week of events to demonstrate his continued reign but has not received the blind following he
China Evaluates Partnership With Russia
Executive Summary: Russian President Vladimir Putin plans to make China the first foreign trip of his new presidential term, signaling his need to reaffirm the strategic partnership. Russia is closely
War of Attrition Perturbs Putin’s Elites
Executive Summary: Russian Deputy Defense Minister Timur Ivanov was arrested in Moscow on accusations of corruption, surprising Russians who have not seen a large-scale corruption charge since the start of
Russia’s Growing Isolation Changes Balance of War
Executive Summary: Strengthened Western resolve to roll back Moscow’s invasion is beginning to coincide more strongly with the interests of the “world majority” in seeking renewed global stability. The approval
Multi-Prong Peace Offensive Pushes Putin Into Corner
Executive Summary: Moscow projects confidence with its continued offensive in Ukraine, but the Kremlin is worried about growing international efforts for peace talks and increased discontent at home. Turkish President
NATO’s New Energy Makes Russia Anxious and Angry
Executive Summary As NATO takes steps to increase its solidarity, Russian propagandists have responded by exaggerating Western disunity. Kremlin propaganda portrays NATO’s strengthening European pillar as evidence of weakening US
Terrorism Undercuts Putin’s Political Agenda
Executive Summary: The Islamic State in Khorasan Province (ISKP) terrorist attack outside of Moscow was an abject failure of the Russian intelligence services, leading officials to push conspiracy theories claiming
Post-‘Election’ Russia Sinks Deeper Into War Quagmire
Executive Summary: Cracks in the Kremlin’s infrastructure are appearing following the Russian Presidential Election last week, exposing fragilities in the seemingly solid system of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s power. The
Presidential ‘Elections’ Cannot Restore Putin’s Authority
Executive Summary: Russia will hold presidential elections this week in an attempt to demonstrate the population’s sustained loyalty to President Vladimir Putin and support for his war.
Russian Unity and Western Discord Converge in Putin’s Imagination
Executive Summary: The Kremlin’s war strategy relies on the ideas that Russian society is united behind the war and that Western unity is crumbling, neither of which is strong enough
Russian Society Disfigured and Degraded by the ‘Long War’
Executive Summary: The Kremlin’s tactics of increasing repression and exaggerating domestic support for the war resemble strategies used during the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan and Stalin’s earlier repressions. The Kremlin
Russia’s Post-Putin Future Becomes Darker
Executive Summary: Alexei Navalny’s death may spur the West to take more decisive actions against Russia. The US House of Representatives may now be pressured to pass the $95 billion
Russian Economy Feels Bite of Attrition
Executive Summary: Russia’s economy benefited from increased military expenditures, but industrial production is stagnating as growth limits. Heavy prioritization of the defense industry is causing contractions in other sectors like
Russia’s Vision for Dominance in the Middle East Suffers Under Conflict
Executive Summary: The US airstrike targeting terrorist bases in Iraq and Syria challenges Russia's Middle East dominance, prompting Moscow to reassess its strategic ties, especially with Israel. Moscow's unequivocal pro-Palestinian
Russian Siren Song of Peace and Baltic Warnings of War
Executive Summary: Kremlin propaganda maintain that the “special military operation” continues as planned, that Moscow is open to peace talks, and that “freezing” hostilities would be the best solution for
Russia Held Hostage to Putin’s Crime of Aggression
Executive Summary: Putin’s claims that he will never give up the “spoils” won in Ukraine keep Russia locked in the cage of war and render any notions of peace negotiations
Balance of War in Ukraine Set to Shift, Not in Russia’s Favor
Stalemate is presently used most often to describe the current state of Russia’s war against Ukraine these days. Fighting along the frontlines, however, is quite fluid and may be approaching
Russia Enters Third Year of War Diminished, Degraded, and Joyless
On the night of December 29, 2023, Russia conducted a series of massive missile strikes on Ukrainian cities. This operation was meant to add weight to President Vladimir Putin’s confident
Russia’s Row With Finland Exacerbates Baltic Solitude
Russia’s geopolitical influence is increasingly shrinking in the Baltic Sea region. The most recent episode in the region’s worsening relations with Moscow was the sudden arrival of hundreds of migrants
Russian Energy Industry Faces Looming Investment Crisis
The 2023 UN Climate Change Conference (COP28), currently taking place in Dubai from November 30 to December 12, is missing contributions from one major energy power—namely, Russia. Many countries are
Russian Influence Diminished in Remaking the Middle East
The Kremlin has welcomed the Israel-Hamas truce in Gaza that began on November 24. The pause, however, does not fit into Russia’s larger designs for the Middle East. From Moscow's
Russia Tries and Fails to Gain a Foothold in Asia-Pacific
Few prospects worry Moscow more than a potential reduction of tensions between the United States and China. Such a development, even if half-hearted and temporary, would threaten a curtailment of
Russian Nuclear Blackmail Remains Ineffective
The degradation of Russian morale in the trenches of Avdiivka and Bakhmut has driven Moscow to try altering the course of the war with a revival of nuclear blackmail tactics.
Putin and Xi Meet as Hidden Differences Mount
Foreign trips are now rare occasions for Russian President Vladimir Putin. As such, it was highly important to him to hold a position above that of the other participants at
Moscow Seeks to Benefit From Fighting in Gaza
Russia’s war against Ukraine crosses the 600-day mark today, and the fighting between Israel and the Hamas terrorists based in Gaza is on its tenth day. The effects of the
Putin Uses Valdai Club to Repeat Nuclear Bluff
Last week, the annual gathering of the Valdai International Discussion Club was held in Sochi, Russia. Today, this conference does not deserve the attention such events used to have a
Winter in the Long War Is Coming for Russia
Russia’s strategy for prevailing in the long war with Ukraine does not have a protracted timeline and looks no further than 2024. It is based on three premises: economic performance
Zelenskyy Fights Difficult Diplomatic Battles, as Russia’s Isolation Deepens
Neither New York, nor Washington rolled out the red carpet for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. He came ready for tough challenges and succeeded in making the case for sustained global
Putin and Kim Meet at Russian Cosmodrome
On September 13, two armored trains met at a cosmodrome in Russia’s Far East. While this might read like the beginning of a joke, it is in fact an accurate
Russia’s Diminished Global Status Exposed in India
Russian President Vladimir Putin’s absence at the G20 summit in New Delhi on September 9 and 10 was not all that surprising and seemed hardly registered by any of the
Russia Remains Stubborn on Non-Renewal of Ukraine Grain Deal
It has been almost two months since Russia terminated the United Nations–approved deal ensuring the safe export of Ukrainian wheat and corn from its Black Sea ports. And following his
Hard Georgian Lessons for Ending the War in Ukraine
Russia’s all-out aggression against Ukraine, which will pass the 18-month mark next week, is indirectly but strongly connected to the Russo-Georgian war of 15 years ago. In the first week
Ukraine’s ‘Counteroffensive’ in the Global South
The low-profile and high-impact meeting in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, on August 5 and 6 was never intended to produce a road map for ending the war in Ukraine; neither was
Hollow Words and Apparent Setbacks at the Russia-Africa Summit
Concerted diplomatic efforts were invested during preparations for the Russia-Africa Summit in St. Petersburg, formally held on July 27 and 28, and President Vladimir Putin was grandstanding, networking and entertaining
Russia Escalates War by Breaking Ukraine Grain Deal
The decision to withdraw from the international arrangement guaranteeing the safety of grain exports from Ukrainian ports, announced in Moscow on July 17, signifies a significant effort to escalate non-kinetic
Russia Reels From New Post-Vilnius Challenges
The outcome of the NATO summit in Vilnius on July 11 and 12 left the Russian leadership confused and anxious. The controversial issue on Ukraine’s membership in the alliance was
A Vilnius Boost for the Ukrainian Offensive
The summit of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) in Vilnius, Lithuania, on July 11 and 12 will likely not produce any sensational joint decisions; it is set, nevertheless, to
Failures of Putin Regime Distort Russian Political Perspectives
Questions about the drivers, participants and consequences of the Wagner Group mutiny on June 23 and 24 are set to remain unanswered as the Russian leadership finds it necessary to
Mutiny Undercuts Russian Intrigues in the Global South
The weekend mutiny of the Wagner Group, pathetic as it may look in hindsight, is certain to affect Russia’s ability to sustain its aggression against Ukraine and to repel the
Russia Stays on the Course of Economic Delusion and Military Attrition
The summer economic forum in St. Petersburg used to be a vanity fair of Russian opulence and corruption. But last week's modest, if not frugal, event was rather an exercise
The Counteroffensive, the Dam and the Proliferation of ‘Peace Plans’
The protracted deadlock in the trenches of the war in Ukraine is giving way to high-intensity battles, and this escalation instantly generates widespread international resonance, in which expectations of a
Ukraine Takes the War Deep Into Russia
Sun Tzu, the great Chinese military philosopher, was rarely studied in Soviet military academies, but the Ukrainian high command—seeking to “win first and start fighting after”—appears to be taking a
Three Russian Discourses and Significant Silence on the War in Ukraine
The noise of jingoist propaganda and anti-Western hysteria emanating from Moscow is not as monotonous as it often seems, and the variations expose significant differences between and within Russian elite
Summit in Hiroshima Charts Ending for War in Ukraine
From May 19 to 21, Japan hosted the most recent meeting of the seven heads of state (Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom and the United States) as
Muted V-Day Celebrations in Russia Amid Disastrous War
Victory Day in Russia continues to resonate throughout Russia society, and official propaganda in the past decade has strived to change the meaning of this emotionally charged and solemn day
Political Games Abound Over Ukraine’s Coming Offensive
The sea of mud in southern Ukraine is hardening into solid, tank-accessible ground, and political battles in and between all stake-holders in Russia’s war against Ukraine are escalating to a
Moscow Engulfed by Anxiety About Impending Ukrainian Offensive
Combat operations in the Donbas trenches remain deadlocked, but their diminishing intensity does not signify an impasse in the course of the Russo-Ukrainian war, which continues to evolve on the
Putin’s Political Bubble Tightens Up
Decision-making in the Kremlin had been so erratic—even before the re-invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022—that the proposition of President Vladimir Putin inhabiting a bubble of servile courtiers and
New Decree on Foreign Policy Fails to Hide Russia’s Falsity
On March 31, President Vladimir Putin signed a new decree on Russia’s “Foreign Policy Concept,” an odd document that attempts to combine the Kremlin’s distorted worldview with an inflated perception
As NATO Gains New Strength, Moscow Resorts to Nuclear Bluff
On March 23, the historic process of North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) enlargement passed a critical milestone as Finnish President Sauli Niinistö signed into law legislation on accession to the
Four Complications for the Rushed Putin-Xi Summit
Chinese President Xi Jinping’s state visit to Moscow, which starts today and is expected to go for three days, is certain to be rich in pomp and ceremony. Yet, its
China Adjusts Limits on Partnership With Russia
The Russian army’s ongoing struggle to capture Bakhmut might appear to be primarily a tactical episode in the larger geo-strategic picture of Russia’s war against Ukraine. However, it also affects
Russia-Ukraine War Compels Japan to Reassess China Challenge, Shift Course on Security
Introduction Against the backdrop of the grisly Russia-Ukraine war, the security situation in East Asia may appear conducive to the continuation of the long peace that the region has enjoyed
Putin’s War-Mongering Spectacle Reveals War Fatigue
As the one-year mark of President Vladimir Putin’s disastrous war against Ukraine neared, the Russian army failed to score anything resembling even a minor victory to provide the Russian leader
Before Decisive Battles, Russia’s War Against Ukraine Reaches a Political Culmination
As the one-year mark approaches, the Russo-Ukrainian war shows little movement along the battle lines but plenty of action along the political dimension, which may be approaching a culmination point.
Russia Seeks to Circumvent the Advancing Western Alliance in Africa
The broad coalition built last week for supplying main battle tanks to Ukraine signifies a new surge in strengthening the unity of the US-led Western alliance, and Russia has had
Davos Meets Ramstein: Russia’s Global Standing Takes a Hit
Two events of profound, and maybe even decisive, importance for the outcome of the Ukraine war happened last week: the Davos gathering of the World Economic Forum and the meeting
As War Against Ukraine Lengthens, Russia Shifts Top Brass
Combat operations in Ukraine have largely contracted to a 10-mile battleground between Bakhmut and Soledar. During this fierce fighting, the command structure of Russia’s “special military operation” was suddenly upgraded
Putin’s Lonely Christmas Amid His Hopeless War
It was a striking image for a traditional season of joy and hope: Russian President Vladimir Putin attending the Orthodox Christmas service all alone in one of the Kremlin’s cathedrals.
Russia Remains Stuck in 2022, a Year of Miscalculated War and Deep Degradation
The new year of cheerful celebrations and renewed hopes has failed to arrive in Russia, which is sinking deeper into the vortex of President Vladimir Putin’s devastating war against Ukraine.
Putin’s Wartime Leadership Wavers and Wanes
Bold and unpredictable maneuvers are supposed to be the trademark political style of Russian President Vladimir Putin; last week, however, he surprised observers of various persuasions not with a proactive
As Ukraine Conducts Deep Strikes, Russia Turns to Iran
On December 5, two Ukrainian strikes on Russian air bases deep into Russian territory and far from the frontlines produced a painful shock for Russian forces and could signify a
Russian Energy Policy Wriggles Under a Hard Ceiling
The enforcement of the price ceiling for Russian oil transported by sea enacted on December 5 is not a surprise, as this measure was being discussed by the Unites States
Russian Influence Fades in the Middle East
The 2022 World Cup has been dominating global news, and no one is missing the Russian team among the 32 participating nations, unlike, for instance, Italy or Egypt. Neither has
Putin’s Nuclear Blackmail Hits US Resolve and Chinese Wall
The missile that landed in Eastern Polish farmland on November 15, killing two people and injuring three, caused a sharp international crisis, which was treated by Warsaw with due care
Downplaying the Fall of Kherson, Moscow Aims to Freeze War
The liberation of Kherson by Ukrainian forces on November 11 was both predictable and surprising. The strategic imperative for withdrawing Russian troops from the indefensible position along the west side
Foreign Policy Setbacks Hamper Putin’s Desires for Bali
The G20 summit in Bali, Indonesia, scheduled for November 15–16, certainly presents attractive prospects for Russian President Vladimir Putin, who needs to re-assert his place among the world’s most influential
No Surprises but Putin Reveals Frustrations at Valdai
The Valdai Club’s annual conference used to be a gala gathering of Western and international experts who appreciated direct access to Russian elites and expected to hear about new trends
Russia Tries to Extend and Exploit a Pause in War
Fast-moving developments in various tactical battlefields of Russia’s war against Ukraine have notably slowed during the past week, and Moscow is actively seeking to prolong this procrastination. President Vladimir Putin,
No Escape for Putin From His Lonely and Tight Corner
On October 7, celebrations in Russia for President Vladimir Putin’s 70th birthday were rather muted and distinctly half-hearted. For the big day, Putin opted to stage an informal gathering of
Putin’s Botched Mobilization and Nuclear Non-Option
Russian President Vladimir Putin’s September 21 address to the nation could prove to be one of his most fateful blunders in his disastrous war in Ukraine. In his 15-minute pre-recorded
Eurasian Summit of Hidden Tensions and Thin Pretenses
Samarkand did not go well for Russian President Vladimir Putin. The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit hosted by Uzbekistan in the ancient city gathered many leaders of various Eurasian states,
Putin Has Unsheathed His Energy Weapon Too Early—and Too Late
In early September 2022, Russian President Vladimir Putin spelled out his intention to punish Europe for resisting Russia’s assault on the world order and supporting Ukraine louder and clearer than
Putin’s Choices in Ukraine: Retreat, Attrition or Escalation
The long-promised Ukrainian counteroffensive in the south has not yet delivered any breakthrough, but it still signifies a critical turning point for the war: Russia cannot hope to win by
Putin’s Next Miscalculation: Russia’s Readiness for a Long War
As Russian aggression against Ukraine approaches the half-year mark and combat operations appear to be at a standstill, a new calculus has been developed in the Kremlin: A long war
Erdogan and Putin Cordially Probe One Another’s Faults and Failures
The meeting in Sochi, Russia, on August 5 between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan was more than just another chapter in the long track record
Battle for Kherson and Russia’s Global Downsizing
The tide of the Ukraine war has subtly shifted as the Russian offensive has exhausted itself and the Ukrainian pushback has started to gain momentum. In retrospect, the pitched battle
Russia Cherishes Ambitions but Loses Positions in Middle East
The Ukraine war has generated shockwaves far beyond the Donbas battlefields, and the Middle East has absorbed and returned the variegated impacts and, as a result, has attracted increased attention
Russian Assault on World Order Falters and Fails
Russia’s attack on Ukraine has clearly lost momentum, but the intensity of its multi-prong confrontation with the West keeps rising. Russian military command announced an “operational pause” in Donbas after
Seeking to Crack Western Unity, Putin Sinks Russian Economy
On the Donbas battlefields, Russian troops still strive to advance, but in the global arena of confrontation with the collective West, Russia keeps losing ground. A sequence of heavy blows
Russian Experiment With De-Modernization Yields Negative Results
The post-Soviet transformation took Russia from a fledgling democracy to a corrupt autocracy, but, since the start of the war against Ukraine, the Kremlin has taken a new turn, which
How Russia Can Be Defeated but Not Humiliated
The West’s fears of humiliating Russia too much by ensuring its defeat in the war against Ukraine run much more deeply than the unfortunate turn of phrase uttered in recent
Russian Elites Demonstrate Loyalty to Putin, but Are Preparing for Unruly Succession
The full-scale re-invasion of Ukraine, ordered by Russian President Vladimir Putin on February 24, came as a shock for many groups within the Russian elite. They are still assessing the
After 100 Days, Russian Offensive Crawls Toward Eventual Defeat
Russian military strategists argue that modern wars are decided in the high-intensity initial period; and the multi-pronged large-scale offensive into Ukraine was indeed launched, on February 24, 2022, with the
Will the Closure at Azovstal Plant Steel Ukraine’s Resolve to Keep Fighting?
In the seemingly deadlocked but, in fact, fast-evolving war in Ukraine, two impactful events coincided in mid-May, altering the course of the battles and political stand-off. The first one was
Could Annexation Be Putin’s Response to NATO Enlargement?
Russia’s aggression against Ukraine has energized the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) in every possible way, reviving the alliance’s purpose and unity, and granting it new attractiveness in Europe as
On the Occasion of May 9, 2022, Putin Had Nothing to Say
For weeks leading up to May 9, Russian President Vladimir Putin was widely expected to announce a major decision during the annual Victory Day military parade on the Red Square.
Escalation of Lies and Threats Leaves Putin With Two Bad Choices
The deadlocked war with Ukraine has pushed Russia into an irreconcilable dilemma: it can neither accept reality nor keep denying it. This contradiction can be seen both in the official
No Feasible End-Game for Russia in Badly Mismanaged War
Predictions of a decisive offensive in the eastern Ukrainian region of Donbas on the one hand, and speculation about peace talks on the other hand, have gained new intensity in
Failure Looms Over Russia’s Decisive Offensive in Donbas
Triumphalist rhetoric coming out of Moscow notwithstanding, Russia’s war in Ukraine is not progressing according to plan (see EDM, April 11). Nevertheless, President Vladimir Putin repeated yet again last week
Russia’s Quick Victory Vanishes, as Protracted War Looks Inevitable
Russia has revised its war plan multiple times during the, so far, seven-week-long, ill-conceived large-scale invasion of Ukraine, yet it still remains incompatible with both tactical imperatives and political ambitions.
Putin’s First Assertive Move on the Energy Front Misfires
Combat operations on all key fronts of the Russo-Ukrainian war continue non-stop, even if without decisive action, but the transit of Russian natural gas to Europe through Ukraine’s pipeline system
Russia’s Strategic Confusion in Ukraine Deepens and Widens
For at least the past 3 weeks of the 33-day-long war against Ukraine, it has been clear that the Russian offensive has lost momentum, with its key groupings of forces
Stalled Military Offensive and Unfolding Political Defeat for Russia in Ukraine
One striking feature of Russia’s fast-evolving war against Ukraine is the highly uneven dynamics of escalation in its different domains. The economic pressure on Russia has reached the level of
Moscow Scrambles to Sustain Its Positions in the Middle East
The long-planned Ukrainian war is going poorly for President Vladimir Putin on many fronts, from the fiercely defended outskirts of Kyiv to the closed doors of McDonald’s restaurants in Moscow.
Putin Losing the Wars He Started
The word “war” is presently banned in the official Russian discourse on Ukraine, but in fact the “special military operation,” launched on President Vladimir Putin’s order in the early morning
Crucial Week in Putin’s Pseudo-War Starts With a Bang, a Feint and a Flop
The protracted escalation of the crisis encompassing Europe, from the Eastern Mediterranean to the Arctic but centered on Ukraine and driven entirely by Russia’s threats, has reached its inescapable culmination.
Putin’s Journey From the Munich Speech to the Brink of War With Ukraine
Fifteen years ago, at the 2007 Munich Security Conference, President Vladimir Putin surprised the high-level audience with a speech that explicitly juxtaposed Russian and Western security interests. In retrospect, the
Putin Takes His Ukraine Crisis to Beijing
The opening ceremony of the 2022 Winter Olympic Games in Beijing last Friday (February 4) may be remembered not only for its spectacular fireworks and extra-tight pandemic measures but also
Putin’s Blackmail-War in Ukraine Continues Under Diplomatic Cover
The guns have so far remained silent on the snow-covered Russian-Ukrainian border, but there is certainly no peace there; a rather unusual war is in progress. It is unlike any
Tough Talks Produce New Russia-West Face-Off
Diplomats naturally value dialogue; but when it comes to current relations with Moscow, the wisdom of such an approach looks dubious—particularly following the week of consecutive rounds of tough talks
The Anniversary That Russia Fails to Internalize
The topics of Russia’s plight and future prospects came up again and again last week, in the December 7 video-conversation between Presidents Joseph Biden and Vladimir Putin, at the Summit
Ukraine’s Troubles, Putin’s ‘Red Lines’ and Biden’s Warnings
Crisis is brewing yet again in the intrinsically antagonistic relations between Russia and Ukraine, and President Vladimir Putin seeks to harvest richer political dividends from it than he did half
A Stability Check in US-Russian Relations
Russia has not entirely avoided contravening international laws and norms since the Geneva summit in mid-June, but its behavior has been an improvement compared to many periods in recent memory.
Spurning Pair of International Summits, Putin Denounces Globalization
The back-to-back international summits of the G20 in Rome and COP26 in Glasgow at the end of October brought together hosts of dignitaries and hordes of activists, but one global
Putin’s Valdai Platitudes Obscure Worsening Domestic Situation
The annual meeting of the Valdai Club last week (October 18–21) was less pompous than usual, and many foreign guests attended virtually; but Russian President Vladimir Putin opted to make
Russia and China: A Mutually Exaggerated Strategic Partnership?
Introduction Below the surface, not everything is smooth in China-Russia relations, but it can be difficult to see past the exaggerated plaudits generated by powerful propaganda machines on the unique
The EU-Russia Antagonism Stretches From Ukraine to the Arctic
In its multi-domain confrontation with the West, Russia presumes that the main driver is the rivalry with the United States, while typically portraying the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) as
What Difference Will the Nobel Peace Prize Make in Russia?
The Norwegian Nobel committee’s decision, announced last Friday (October 8), to award the 2021 Nobel Peace Prize to Novaya Gazeta Editor-in-Chief Dmitry Muratov as well as Philippine journalist Maria Ressa
Russia’s Four Diplomatic Encounters and a Summit
In late September, while President Joseph Biden struggled with a multitude of domestic issues and President Vladimir Putin sought opportunities to score points on the international arena, the United States
Russian Gas, German Elections, and US sanctions
Two high-resonance processes have been simultaneously unfolding in Europe in the last few weeks: the sharp increase in the prices on natural gas (see EDM, August 11) as well as
Fake Elections and Russia’s Belligerent Foreign Policy
The outcome of Russia’s crudely manipulated parliamentary elections on September 17–19 was never in question: the Kremlin executed extra-rigid control over the campaigning and vote counting. But it was somewhat
Russian-Style Multilateralism: Decorative and Ineffectual
Amidst the ongoing turmoil in Afghanistan, Russia has been convening or partaking in unusually numerous multilateral forums. President Vladimir Putin, aware of the strong emphasis by the Joseph Biden administration
Russia Takes Measure of How Afghanistan Resonates in Middle East
The typical opinion in the Moscow political bazaar is that every foreign policy setback for the United States represents a net gain for Russia. The US withdrawal from Afghanistan, with
August Anniversaries in Russia: A Litany of Bad Memories
Each August witnesses some critical and usually unhappy events for Russia, and this year is particularly rich with round anniversaries. Sixty years ago, on August 13, 1961, the Soviet leadership
Autocratic Symbiosis Drags Belarus and Russia Down
One of the most memorable stories from the 2020 Tokyo Olympics was the non-start of Belarusian athlete Kristina Timanovskaya, who dared to criticize her country’s sport authorities and found herself
Putin’s Paranoia, More Than Nuclear Weapons and Oil, Make Russia Dangerous
The remarks by United States President Joseph Biden at the Office of the Director of National Intelligence last week (July 27) made a strong but ambivalent impression in Moscow. His
Naval Parade Plays Into Putin’s Dangerous Vanity
Combat ships lined the Neva River in St. Petersburg and crowded the harbor of the nearby Kronstadt naval base last Sunday (July 25) for the parade marking the 325th anniversary
Putin’s Fixation on Ukraine Is Demagogic, Delusional and Dangerous
World leaders rarely publish their visions of current affairs in the form of essays, but President Vladimir Putin developed a habit since returning to the Kremlin in 2012. His latest
Putin’s Predictable Syrian Compromise Amidst Hostile Russian Behavior
It took a telephone call from United States President Joseph Biden last Friday (July 9) afternoon to convince President Vladimir Putin to abandon his “principled” stance on upholding Syria’s sovereignty
Putin’s Penchant for Drawing and Crossing ‘Red Lines’
The summit in Geneva between Presidents Joseph Biden of the United States and Vladimir Putin of Russia was supposed to stabilize bilateral relations by demarcating areas and issues each side
Russia Predictably Steps up Attacks on US-European Unity
The post-Geneva changes in Russia’s behavior are not quite going in the direction United States President Joseph Biden had indicated after inviting Russian President Vladimir Putin to meet and deescalate
Putin’s Satisfaction With Geneva Summit Will Not Last
Expectations regarding the summit between Presidents Joseph Biden and Vladimir Putin in Geneva last Wednesday (June 16) were set quite low (see EDM, June 14, 17), but the media hype
Contradictory US and Russian Messaging on the Biden-Putin Geneva Summit
The smooth sailing and genuine bonhomie of United States President Joseph Biden’s proceeding European tour will grow much more tense at the last event—the Wednesday (June 16) meeting with Russian
Distortions in Russian Economic Policy Exposed at Pompous Forum
The St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) was launched in 1997 as a Russian equivalent to the Davos World Economic Forum, and for many years it provided a venue for
The Kremlin’s Quandary With Supporting an Isolated Belarus
The atmosphere at the Friday (May 28) evening meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Belarusian counterpart, Alyaksandr Lukashenka, was strikingly businesslike considering the intensity of Western condemnations of
The Arctic Prelude to a ‘Stabilization’ Summit
The meeting between US State Secretary Antony Blinken and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov in Reykjavik, Iceland, last week (May 19), was not supposed to resolve any disagreements, but it
Moscow Cannot Find Opening to Boost Its Role in Middle East
Russia has traditionally excelled at exploiting crises in the Middle East as a way to boost its own global stature, but the sharp escalation of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict in recent
Russia Recoils From Possibility of Stable Relationship With US
The traditional May 9 Victory Day parade in Moscow was not a grand affair this year, unlike the one originally planned for 2020, which had to be postponed and curtailed
Putin Pauses, but Russia’s Propensity for Trouble-Making Persists
Russian President Vladimir Putin’s apparent plan to emerge from his extended self-isolation with new energy did not quite work out as expected, and he clearly needed to pause. Last week
Amidst Seemingly Easing Tensions, Putin Leaves Much Unsaid in Speech to Parliament
President Vladimir Putin’s annual address to the Russian Federal Assembly (parliament), delivered last Wednesday, April 21, following a long delay, was anticipated to present a whole host of major surprises;
Putin’s Power Play Foiled by Biden’s Punch-and-Placate Tactics
An extraordinary sequence of oscillating hostile and conciliatory steps between the United States and Russia was initiated by President Joseph Biden’s phone call to President Vladimir Putin last Tuesday (April
Penned in on Multiple International Issues, Putin Strives to Show Resolve on Ukraine
Putting military pressure on Ukraine could have seemed to the Russian leadership to be the most practical way to assert Moscow’s central role in international affairs. The standard working assumption
Analyst Pavel Baev Interviewed on Fox News About Russian Military Activities
On April 8, Russia expert Pavel K. Baev was interviewed by Fox News about the Kremlin's militaristic response to President Joseph Biden's remarks calling Vladimir Putin a "killer."
War Scare Is Putin’s Natural Element
The current escalation of tensions around eastern Ukraine is dangerous and may appear untimely and inopportune while Europe and Russia seek to focus on managing the latest COVID-19 pandemic wave
Russia Finds Itself Marginalized Between China and a Reuniting West
The foreboding in Moscow of a new escalation of tensions with the West has given way to feelings of almost disappointing anticlimax. United States President Joseph Biden’s attestation of President
Two Words That Shook Putin’s Regime
The resonance in Russia from a short fragment of United States President Joseph Biden’s ABC News interview last Wednesday (March 17) has been extraordinarily loud—and the bilateral consequences could be
Special Services Aggravate Bad Governance in Russia
The escalation of repressions against all manifestations of discontent in Russia inevitably results in greater influence of the country’s special services and police, often described as the siloviki (literally, power-wielders).
Russia’s Historical Markers and a Hampered Future
Early spring in Russia is a season of awakening from winter slumber—and it is remarkably rich with hopeful historical markers. The notion of “thaw” is forever connected with the liberating
Russia Tries to Counter US Moves in the Middle East, in Vain
As its relations with Europe deteriorate and partnership with China hits an apparent pause, Russia searches for new opportunities to restore its compromised global status. Moscow found quite a few
West’s Renewed Focus on Solidarity and Coordination Perturbs Kremlin
The disastrous visit to Moscow of the European Union’s top diplomat, High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Josep Borrell, on February 4–6, followed in quick succession by three
Russia Blackmails and Courts Europe
Tense political relations with Europe have come into sharp focus in Russian domestic debates, forcing a sudden backtrack. The trigger to the anxiety was the recent (February 4–6) visit to
Russia Defiant of White House’s Foreign Policy Agenda
Russia received notably high attention in United States President Joseph Biden’s first foreign policy speech, delivered at the State Department last Thursday, February 4. President Vladimir Putin may take pride
Putin Postures as a ‘Davos Man’ While Bolstering His Autocracy
The idea to invite President Vladimir Putin to deliver a special address at the World Economic Forum, which made “The Great Reset” the theme for its annual Davos meeting last
Kremlin Tests Limits of New US Administration
The complexity of the extraordinary crisis inherited by the United States’ new presidential administration is apparent for all its international partners and opponents, so most presume Washington will remain largely
Navalny Has Set a Damning Dilemma for Putin’s Regime
The decision of Russian democratic opposition leader Alexei Navalny to return to Moscow was announced on January 13 in a deliberately matter-of-fact way—and produced a full-blown political storm. His message
Russia’s Looming Year of Predictable Stagnancy
Recovering from the long seasonal holiday break, Russia usually begins a new year with high hopes and low activity. But last year had a strikingly different start, as President Vladimir
Year 2020 in Review: The Maturation of Russia’s Autocracy
Russia’s post-Soviet counter-transition arrived at its logical conclusion in 2020: Starting from a fledgling democracy in the 1990s, the country shifted to an “enlightened authoritarianism” in the 2000s, evolving into
Deepening Leadership Confusion Exacerbates Russia’s Multiple Crises
The scale of the complex disaster in Russia caused by the escalating COVID-19 pandemic becomes clearer with the incessant stream of bad news coming out of the country, even if
Russia Strives for an Oil and Gas Resurgence
As the global economy—animated by the arrival of multiple COVID-19 vaccines—hopes for the first signs of recovery, expectations also rise in Russia for an accompanying surge in demand for oil
Putin at Loss About Connecting With New US Leadership
One of the few world leaders yet to acknowledge the outcome of the presidential election in the United States is Russian President Vladimir Putin. This procrastination is strikingly uncharacteristic: Putin,
Rediscovered Moderation a Poor Fit for Russia’s Putinist Policy
At the G20 summit last Saturday (November 21), virtually hosted by Saudi Arabia, Russian President Vladimir Putin sought to play the role of a wise statesman charting a course of
Putin Tries to Regain Initiative, as Crises Continue to Rage
The impression that Russia has behaved uncharacteristically passively in the face of multiple unexpected foreign crises over the last few months is somewhat misleading. It is true that Moscow’s attempts
Russians Contemplate Importance of US Elections for Russia
As the outcome of the 2020 presidential election in the United States became clear, many Russians began to reflect on what the result might mean for Russia’s position in global
New Wave of Islamic Extremism Adds to Putin’s Troubles
The series of terrorist attacks in France, in late October, attracted much attention in Russia, sharply dividing public opinion and leaving President Vladimir Putin in an awkward limbo. The Kremlin
Putin’s ‘Strong State’ Fails the Coronavirus Test
The COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic continues to accelerate in Russia: during the past week, the high mark in daily infections moved from 15,000 to 17,500, of which about a third were
Putin’s Non-Starter in Arms Control Marks the Nadir of Russia’s Status
The virtual meeting of the Russian Security Council last Friday (October 16) started with a surprise meant to signify a major foreign policy initiative. Namely, President Vladimir Putin instructed Foreign
Navalny’s Challenge Exposes Putin’s Self-Isolation From Reality
Alexei Navalny shocked the Russian political establishment by accusing President Vladimir Putin of personally ordering the special operation to poison him. Navalny, once a leader but who has now emerged
The Coronavirus Crisis Undercuts Russia’s Geopolitical Ambitions
The sharp rise of COVID-19 infections in Russia in the last couple of weeks was predictable given the relatively high “plateau” of new cases over the summer after the sharp
Russia Caught in Web of Middle Eastern Intrigues
The annual session of the United Nations General Assembly is being run this year as a video-conference, but President Vladimir Putin deemed his address so important that the key points
Dismissing European Outrage, Russia Turns Itself Into a ‘Great Pariah Power’
With its latest double breach of norms of international behavior—poisoning the opposition leader Alexei Navalny and embracing the discredited Belarusian autocrat, President Alyaksandr Lukashenka—Russia has managed to unite Europe in
Russia Alarmed and Awed by the Belarusian Revolution
Five weeks of peaceful mass protests in Belarus after the falsified elections on August 9, have profoundly changed this formerly rather stable and conservative country, impressed its European neighbors, and
A Chain of Poor Choices Leads Putin Into a Serious Blunder
Russia traditionally returns to normal work, after a summer break, on September 1. This year, however, although schools reopened as usual, broader public and political life persisted on its earlier
Russia’s Problems Grow Into Big Trouble, but Putin Remains Aloof
The Russian Security Council held a virtual session last Friday (August 7), and President Vladimir Putin opened with the proposal to discuss the “international situation in general”; if his subordinates
The Russian Side of the Murky Story in Belarus
The presidential elections in Belarus were expected to be a tightly controlled affair, resulting in a convincing victory, on August 9, for the incumbent, Alyaksandr Lukashenka, who has firmly retained
Russia Stages Parade for Troubled Naval Fleet
The “tradition” of staging an annual naval parade in St. Petersburg was established by Russian President Vladimir Putin in 2017, and every year the show has become more extravagant. Last
Crisis in Russia Deepens and Spreads, but Putin Remains in Denial
Every country in the world is experiencing its own particular version of the ongoing global health-and-economic crisis, and Russia faces a particularly complex one, aggravated by outstanding and escalating mismanagement.
Wave of Post-Plebiscite Repressions Makes Russia More Dangerous
Russian President Vladimir Putin’s political “triumph” in securing approval for the set of amendments to the constitution in a public vote on July 1 (see EDM, July 2) has brought
Scant Foreign Policy Choices for a Troubled and Divided Russia
For months, and particularly during the end of June and start of July, Russian politics was centered on ensuring the desired result in the vote on the set of amendments
From Ostentatious Parade to Fraudulent Vote, Putin Tries to Cement His Crumbling Rule
As the tanks rolled off Moscow’s Red Square last Wednesday (June 24), the Russian propaganda machine instantly switched from glorifying extra-modern militarism to trumpeting the next pivotal political event—the public
Three Controversial Articles by Top Officials Distort Russia’s Past, Present and Future
Russian authorities rarely resort to such old-fashioned means of communication as written articles. Yet, last week, three key figures in the top leadership—President Vladimir Putin, Security Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev,
Amidst Pandemic, Putin Stages Three Simulated Triumphs
Last Friday (June 12), President Vladimir Putin made a rare public appearance at the Poklonnaya Gora memorial park in Moscow and delivered a short speech at the ceremonial raising of
Russia Muddles Through Fog of Libyan War and Haze of Syrian ‘Peace’
Ambiguity can be a useful political tactic, securing for a state the advantage of flexibility while leaving its adversaries guessing; but sometimes it simply camouflages confusion. Russia seeks to present
Kremlin Fails to See Anger and Anxiety Rising in Russia
The Russian authorities are caught in a familiar dilemma of whether to resume economic activity or contain the coronavirus pandemic and, trying to have it both ways, are blundering the
Russia’s Multiplying Foreign Policy Constraints
In the last few weeks, Russia has been too busy with the domestic explosion of COVID-19 cases to properly attend to foreign policy matters; but the lack of interest in
Distorted Data and Fanciful Beliefs Inform Russia’s Crisis Mismanagement
Russia is rightfully held responsible for and often caught red-handed spreading disinformation around the globe; but its own policymaking is, in fact, informed by similarly false assessments, which are “improved”
Amidst Subdued Celebrations, Russia Reflects Upon the Meaning of Victory
The celebration of the 75th anniversary of Victory (always with a capital “v”) in the Great Patriotic War against Nazi Germany was supposed to be the pivotal political moment of
Putin’s Non-Decisions Paralyze Crisis-Stricken Russia
As April drew to a close, Russia surpassed China in the number of recorded COVID-19 infections; and by the end of the first week of May, it is set to
Coronavirus Crisis Engulfs Russia
Although Russia had time to prepare for the COVID-19 pandemic—the novel coronavirus arrived to Moscow, now the country’s hardest-hit urban center, only in the last week of March—the authorities were
Russia Accepts and Emulates China’s Coronavirus Propaganda
After a delayed start, Russia is now being hit by the COVID-19 outbreak with devastating force; yet, it has only praise for China’s policy of containing the disease, despite the
Russian Oil Bluff Is Called, and Economic Losses Keep Mounting
News about a new deal on oil production cuts, agreed between Russia and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and then augmented by the communique of the G20
Facing Grave Emergency, Putin Dodges Responsibility
President Vladimir Putin’s second address to the nation on the COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic, delivered last Thursday (April 2), was as brief as his first one, given a week prior—and equally
Putin’s Leadership Damaged by Chain of Recent Blunders
Russian society appears sharply divided regarding the indefinite extension of President Vladimir Putin’s “reign”—with 48 percent in favor and 47 against. Yet, amidst the present-day confusion and separate crises monopolizing
Russia Sinks Into Economic Quicksand
Russian President Vladimir Putin’s much-publicized series of interviews with the official TASS news agency was suddenly interrupted during the third week of March 2020. The pre-recorded interviews, which heretofore received
Putin Nullifies All Further Speculation About a Leadership Transition in Russia
The convoluted intrigue with revising Russia’s Constitution came to a logical yet shockingly abrupt conclusion on March 10, distracting the elites and society at large from worries about the coronavirus
Boris Nemtsov Towers Over Russian Politics, Five Years After Assassination
The Kremlin did not utter even one word to mark the fifth anniversary of the high-profile murder that happened right under the walls of the seat of power in Russia.
Moscow Downplays the Mixed Warnings From Munich
The proceedings of the annual Munich Security Conference always attract keen attention in Moscow, and last weekend (February 14–16) was no exception. The discussions at this high-level forum are indeed
Moscow Plays Hard Ball in the High North
The message from Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov to his Norwegian counterpart, Ine Marie Eriksen Søreide, on the occasion of the 100th anniversary of the Spitsbergen Treaty was rude even
Russia Struggles With the Chinese Challenge
The scope of the epidemiological disaster unfolding in China has dawned on Russia remarkably late. Last Wednesday (January 29), President Vladimir Putin called a small meeting to check national readiness
Russia Exploits Middle East to Subvert Europe
Amidst the Russian government reshuffle and constitutional revisions (see EDM, January 16, 20, 2020), the only international set of troubles that President Vladimir Putin had time to address in the
Putin’s Surprise and Russia’s Foreign Policy
The Russian political class suffered a massive shock from President Vladimir Putin’s address to the Federal Assembly last Wednesday (January 15) in which he delivered three unexpected bombshells (see EDM,
A Year in Review: Russia Moves From Year of Disappointment to Year of No Expectations
Russia is easing into 2020 under expectations of continued economic stagnation and deeper political limbo. And yet, over the previous 12 months, Russia’s foreign policy behavior was rather cautious and
Two Grandiose Summits and an Unlawful Verdict in Russia
After the North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s (NATO) contentious jubilee summit in London last week (December 3–4) (see EDM, December 2), the fulcrum of European politics has shifted to two different
Moscow Seeks to Sow Discord During NATO Jubilee
Russia regularly mixes demonstrations of military might and claims of devotion to cooperation with the West as a means of weakening Western solidarity. And Moscow has been fine-tuning this conspicuously
Political Farce Russian-Style: Putin Complains About Corruption
Russia is often described in the West and by its own “non-systemic” opposition as a police state and an autocracy, and with good reason. The suppression of street protests in
Disappointed in Stagnating ‘Stability,’ Russia Yearns and Braces for Change
Stability has always been the main promise legitimizing Vladimir Putin’s monopolization of political power in Russia. Restoration of stability was the winning slogan for Putin in 2012, in claiming the
The Kremlin Tries to Exorcise the Memory of the Berlin Wall
The massive spontaneous eruption of street protests in East Germany 30 years ago culminated in the breach of the ominous Berlin Wall, and that breakthrough determined the end of the
Russia Ponders the Burden of Its ‘Victory’ in Syria
The memorandum of understanding on Syria signed by Russian President Vladimir Putin and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, in Sochi, on October 22, was seen as a triumph in Moscow
Russian Top Brass Gain Greater Political Weight
The Grom 2019 exercise of Russian strategic forces last week (October 15–17) received limited media attention, which was overwhelmed by the escalation of the Syrian calamity (see EDM, October 17)
Putin’s Indifference to the Turkish Offensive in Syria
The massive and indiscriminate air strikes and the limited land offensive into Kurdish-controlled northern Syria launched by Turkey last Wednesday (October 9) have attracted prime international attention and caused much
Putin’s Eurasian Ambitions and Propositions Ring Hollow
Russia’s “central role” in organizing the political space of rising non-Western Eurasia had been proclaimed at various forums and brainstormed by many political minds in previous years; but last week,
No Fanfare for Russia’s Reduced-Scale Strategic Exercises
Russia’s annual major autumnal exercises are usually accompanied by a loud propaganda campaign advertising the country’s military might; this year, however, official reporting on the Tsentr 2019 war games was
Putin Tries to Find Asia Beyond China
The Eastern Economic Forum in Vladivostok last week (September 4–6)—the fifth one since the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in 2012—was traditional in its pompous proceedings but rather unusual in
Putin Leans on Russian ‘Grandeur,’ Leaving Russians Vexed
The end of summer 2019 found Russian President Vladimir Putin busy with high international politics. He is no longer riding with aging bikers in Crimea or making pilgrimage to the
Summer of Discontent Unsettles Putin’s Rule
Last Wednesday’s (July 31) phone call from United States President Donald Trump probably offered little respite to Russian President Vladimir Putin. Since the start of this year’s unusually cold summer,
Russian Opposition Defies Putin Regime’s Repressions
The now-annual Russian naval parade in St. Petersburg—which has become a new tradition for the country—was held last Sunday (July 28). But a day earlier, an opposition rally was crudely
Russia Ushers in a Post-Pseudo-Arms-Control World
The United States and Russia have entered the final fortnight before time runs out on their pro forma commitment to the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty (1988)—one of the major
Russian-Turkish Missile Deal Enacted by Weakening Autocrats
Since July 12, Russian transport planes have been landing at the Murted Air Base near Ankara, delivering elements of the S-400 surface-to-air missile (SAM) system, which Turkey purchased despite strong
Another Russian Sea Tragedy: Unlearned Lessons Obscured by Secrecy
The submarine tragedy in the Barents Sea on July 1, 2019, was quite different from the Kursk catastrophe of August 2000. The explosion that destroyed the nuclear attack submarine Kursk
Russia’s Stagnation Pushes Kremlin to Renew Pressure on Georgia
A new escalation in the long-running conflict between Russia and Georgia happened almost by chance last week (starting on June 20), but it answered the anxious desire in the Kremlin
As Putin’s Grasp on Power Weakens, His Foreign Policy Is Slackening
Something quite extraordinary happened in Russia last week: a loud public outcry forced the authorities to set free Ivan Golunov, an investigative journalist crudely framed by the police for drug
Russian Economic Forum—All About China
The annual St. Petersburg International Economic Forum was held last week (June 6–8) with the usual pomp and spin. But the traditional goal of attracting Western investments was clearly replaced
Russian Intrigues in the Middle East
Russian diplomacy is well known for its apparent readiness to engage with all parties to the multiple conflicts in the Middle East, and this characteristic has recently produced another awkward
Control Over Russian Political Agenda Slipping From Putin’s Hands
In key global debates, Russia’s voice has been uncharacteristically timid lately, and various Russian domestic controversies are developing without the usual heavy-handed interference from the Kremlin—almost as if President Vladimir
Russia Seeks to Exploit Escalating Troubles in the Middle East
Russia tries to maintain a finger in every conflict in the Middle East, and President Vladimir Putin seeks to cultivate connections with various parties in multiple quarrels. Presently, however, the
Is Russia Really Cutting Its Military Spending?
Military force remains a predominant instrument of choice for Russian policymakers; yet, state expenditures on the Armed Forces continue to decline. This paradoxical situation was recently highlighted by the Stockholm
Putin Tries to Score Three Diplomatic Victories in the Far East
Russian President Vladimir Putin had long requested a meeting with North Korea’s youngish leader, Kim Jong-un, but it was only in mid-April that Russian diplomatic persuasion started to show promise.
Russia Undecided and Apprehensive About Elections in Ukraine
The second round of the presidential elections in Ukraine, held last Sunday (April 21), was a rather unconventional democratic exercise. And for millions of keen followers in Russia, who looked
Putin Lauds Arctic Cooperation While Boosting Regional Militarization
The fifth Russia-sponsored international forum “The Arctic: Territory of Dialogue” was staged last week (April 9–10), in St. Petersburg, and President Vladimir Putin used the occasion to demonstrate his particular
Russia Sets an Anniversary Ambush for NATO
The meeting of 29 foreign ministers from member countries of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), in Washington, DC, last week (April 3–4), marking the 70th anniversary of the North
Ukrainian Elections Challenge Putin’s Autocracy
The presidential elections in Ukraine last Sunday (March 31) were derided, denigrated and ridiculed by Russian propaganda, but they still marked a striking contrast with the severely controlled politics in
Kremlin Tries to Pivot Attention to Syria Upon Release of Mueller Report
The conclusion of the 22-month-long investigation by special counsel Robert Mueller and the presentation of his report to United States Attorney General William Barr is certain to capture prime international
Fifth Anniversary of the Land Grab That Cost Russia Its Future
By mid-March 2014, Russian “little green men” took full control of Ukraine’s Crimean Peninsula. And on March 18, President Vladimir Putin made a jubilant address to the Russian Federation Council
Hidden Animus in the Russia-China Friendship
Official Russian discourse on the status of relations with China is as upbeat as it can possibly be. Andrei Denisov, the long-serving ambassador to Beijing, claims that the two countries
Anniversary of Death of Russian Opposition Leader Boris Nemtsov Reverberates Four Years Later
President Vladimir Putin’s address to the Federal Assembly (upper chamber of the Russian parliament), delivered by two weeks ago (February 20), was disappointing to each segment of its audience. The
Five Issues Putin Preferred Not to Talk About
The annual presidential address to the Federal Assembly (upper chamber of the Russian parliament) is a big political show in Russia, which tells little about the state of the country
Three Conferences and a New Set of Russian Sanctions
Mid-February registered a remarkable sequence of international forums, whose participants debated and sought to counter Russia’s power politics in Europe and the Middle East. First, defense ministers of the North
Four Intrigues in Putin’s Support for Maduro
Russia has positioned itself as the main supporter of Nicholás Maduro’s regime in Venezuela, thus risking turning a crisis in a far-away country into an embarrassing political defeat. Official propaganda
Russia Enters a Treacherous New Post-Arms Control World
The United States’ suspension (as of February 2) of the 1987 Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty, was no surprise—but still delivered a hard blow to Russia’s international position. President Donald
The Syrian Predicament Turns Precarious for Russia
Foreign affairs have yielded few successes and much chagrin for Russia since the start of 2019 (see EDM, January 14, 2019). Relations with the United States are going from bad
Russia’s Pessimistic Prospects for 2019
Unlike the year before, Russia entered 2019 with low expectations and deepening disappointment in its own faltering revival. In contrast, the World Cup provided a focus for anticipation in 2018,
Russia Fruitlessly Prepares for New Sanctions
Last Friday (December 7), Lithuania became the first country to impose new sanctions against Russia for its forceful and illegitimate action against three Ukrainian ships in the Kerch Strait on
Putin Trapped in an Escalatory Spiral of His Own Making
The tweet by United States President Donald Trump, canceling his meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin at the G20 summit in Buenos Aires, Argentina, was such a shock for the
Putin’s Month-Long Diplomatic Tour Highlights Russia’s Growing Irrelevance
Dmitri Peskov, the Kremlin’s press secretary, had to recently (November 13) explain that there was nothing extraordinary about the fact that President Vladimir Putin and Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev were
Russia Cannot Count on Political Easing After US Elections
As the furious campaigning in the United States’ 2018 midterm elections enters its final stretch, Russia can probably find some relief in the fact that it has not really come
Russia Reconsiders Consequences of INF Treaty Breakdown
News about the United States’ decision to withdraw from the 1988 Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty produced the predictable explosion of propaganda commentary in Moscow. But by the end of
Russia Sanctions not Spurring Domestic Rally-Around-the-Flag Effect
Russian propaganda excels at shifting the blame for every one of the country’s problems—even those caused by bad luck, devastating mismanagement, or natural causes—on to the purported main source of
Failed Space Launch Illuminates Russia’s Multiplying Misfortunes
The booster malfunction in the third minute of the Soyuz MC-10 rocket launch last Thursday (October 11) avoided tragedy. Though they did not reach orbit, Cosmonaut Aleksei Ovchinin and astronaut
Putin’s Anti-Israeli ‘Surge’ in Syria
The Russian Ministry of Defense did not wait long to deliver its promised S-300 surface-to-air missiles to Syria. On the night of October 3, a huge An-124 Ruslan transport plane
Four Setbacks and a Tragedy in Russia’s Syrian Intervention
The destruction of an Il-20M radio-electronic surveillance aircraft, with 15 crew members aboard, in the late evening of September 17 was not the worst tragedy to date of the three-year-long
Facing International Outrage and Domestic Ridicule, Putin Assumes Super-Confident Stance
The predictable monotony of the high-level panel at the Eastern Economic Forum in Vladivostok last week (September 11–13) was interrupted by President Vladimir Putin’s suggestion that Russia and Japan sign
Putin Pivots From Western Pressure, but Finds Scant Solace in the East
The annual Russia-hosted Eastern Economic Forum is about to open (September 11–13) in Vladivostok, and President Vladimir Putin has arrived there to greet the leaders of China, Japan, Mongolia and
Russia Goes for Another Pyrrhic Victory in Syria
Military preparations for an offensive on the rebel-controlled Syrian province of Idlib are complete, air strikes have already commenced, and the Russian diplomatic dance around Syria’s war zone is moving
Tenth Anniversary of the War That Wounded Georgia and Derailed Russia
In the first week of August 2008, escalating tensions between Georgia and Russia exploded in a messy battle for Tskhinvali, South Ossetia. The resulting “Five Day War” culminated in the
US-Russian Discord Over Syria Deepens After Discussions in Helsinki
The fruits of President Vladimir Putin’s “victory” at the meeting with President Donald Trump in Helsinki, Finland, on July 16, are turning increasingly bitter for Russia as initial dismay and
Did Putin Overplay His Hand in Helsinki?
The summit between Presidents Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin in Helsinki last Monday (July 16) continues to generate strong international resonance, despite apparently producing few if any tangible results. In
Trump’s Bombast in Brussels and London Will Not Help Putin in Helsinki
The culmination of United States President Donald Trump’s European tour occurs today (July 16), in Helsinki, at the anxiously anticipated but far-from-perfectly prepared meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Trump
Putin Hopes to Dictate Success in Helsinki
An interesting asymmetry of agendas has shaped up for the much-anticipated United States–Russia summit in Helsinki, Finland, on July 16 (see EDM, June 28). For President Vladimir Putin, the unscripted
Social Tensions in Russia Build up as Government Turns Miserly
The soccer fiesta in Russia moves into its second week, but the noisy celebrations could not entirely hide the deepening discontent caused by the tightening of economic and social policies
Russia Rejoices in Celebration of Soccer, but Bad Memories Loom
The start of the 2018 World Cup (June 14–July 15) had everything that the millions of soccer fans in Russia could wish for: perfectly prepared stadiums, a beautiful and short
Reminding Russia About Its Lost Seat at the G7 Table
This year’s G7 summit, held in Quebec, Canada, on June 8–9, was overcome by seemingly unprecedented controversies even before United States President Donald Trump suggested bringing Russia back into this
Putin Tries to Exploit Anti-Trumpism to Advance His Economic Agenda
The annual St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (May 24–26) managed to attract more high-level foreign guests than could be expected considering Russia’s stagnant economy and relative lack of interest from
Putin’s Big Moment Is Reduced to a Familiar Irrelevance
President Vladimir Putin planned his fourth inauguration, held on May 7, to perfection. Like each Russian presidential inauguration since his first, it was timed to come just a few days
Russia Retreats From International Developments
The end of April was extraordinarily rich in high-profile international events—and Russia was conspicuously absent from all these dynamics. The president of South Korea and the North Korean dictator planted
Putin’s Leadership Is Reduced to Indecisive Posturing
Grand geopolitical scheming took a break in Moscow last week. The main news—improbably—turned to the fiasco of the government trying, since April 16, to ban the popular instant messenger Telegram.
US Again Calls Russia’s Bluff on Syria
For a week following the April 7 chemical attack in Douma (a suburb or Damascus, Syria), Russia was high-strung with anxiety about the United States’ forthcoming punishment of the Bashar
‘Black Friday’ Sanctions Against Putin’s Inner Circle
The fact that, last Friday (April 6), the United States Department of the Treasury published a new list of severe sanctions targeting Russian businessmen, officials and companies came as no
Russia Escalates Novichok Crisis, Shifting Onus to US
Moscow announced last week (March 29) that 60 American diplomats would be expelled, delivering a “mirror” response to every Western country that had sanctioned Russia in solidarity with the United
Putin’s Fake Victory Is Boring, but His New Term Will Be Anything But
No surprises happened in Russia on Sunday, March 18, in the carefully orchestrated voting procedure generously described by the media as a “presidential elections.” But many questions loom over the
Russia Is Not Just ‘Toxic,’ But Deadly Poisonously Toxic
US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson happened to be in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, the same day last week as Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, but opted not to have a
Putin’s Answer to Russia’s Many Problems: Missiles and More Missiles
Surprise is a political technique Russia’s President Vladimir Putin excels at, and he did not miss the occasion to spring some notable surprises during his annual address to the parliament,
New Russian Question: Who Is Mr. Prigozhin?
The past several weeks revealed new details about the inner workings of the shadowy side of Russian foreign and defense policymaking. The revelations—focusing mainly on the ongoing investigation into Russian
New ‘Hybrid’ Plots Revealed in Russian Anti-Western Policy
The central theme of the traditional Munich Security Conference last weekend was the current assessment of the Russian threat. The briefs prepared for the high-level participants, including US Secretary of
Russia Experiences Olympic Blues, and Patriotic Bravado Brings No Solace
About 80 Russian athletes marched in the opening ceremony of the 2018 Winter Olympic Games in PyeongChang, South Korea, last Friday (February 9), under the Olympic flag carried by a
Has the Scare in Moscow Over the US ‘Kremlin List’ Evaporated?
The paramount news in Moscow last week was the United States Department of the Treasury’s release of the long-expected report on senior Russian political figures and oligarchs—the so-called “Kremlin List”
Russia Finds Itself Reduced to Irrelevance at Davos
Russian affairs used to attract outsized attention at the annual gatherings of the World Economic Forum in Davos. But this year, the global business elite appeared not to be interested
Revisionist Russia Is the Most Nuclearized Power in the World
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov declared at last week’s (January 18) special meeting of the United Nations Security Council that Russia had no intention of joining the Treaty on the
Russia’s ‘Victory’ in Syria is Debunked, Derailed and Defeated
Premature announcements of political triumphs often result in negative blowback, but Russian President Vladimir Putin’s declaration of victory in the Syrian war was debunked particularly swiftly (see EDM, January 11,
A Year in Review: Russia’s Passive Year Ends Without Closure
In practical terms, Russia has not yet begun 2018—the country awakes from its traditional holiday vacation only on Tuesday (January 9). That said, Russians’ common reflection on the year past
Olympic Fiasco Illuminates Putin’s Weakness
The decision of the International Olympic Committee (IOC) to ban the Russian delegation from the 2018 Winter Olympics was predictable—and the indignant response in Moscow was ready. Hesitant voices of
Russia Prepares for More Extreme Confrontations With United States
Whatever friendly feelings United States President Donald Trump might personally hold toward Moscow, the anti-Russian policy of his administration is even bolder than the course set in the last year
Declaring Victory in Syria, Putin Stands to Lose the Elusive Peace
The meeting of three presidents—Russia’s Vladimir Putin, Turkey’s Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, and Iran’s Hassan Rouhani—in Sochi last Wednesday (November 22), was supposed to mark a triumph for Russian foreign policy.
Putin Looks Forward to Meeting With Trump in Vietnam
Russia remains a dark cloud hanging over the White House, but United States President Donald Trump nevertheless intends to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin during this year’s Asia-Pacific Economic
Militarization and Nuclearization: The Key Features of the Russian Arctic
Taking ownership of and “conquering” the Arctic are themes Russian authorities love to amplify. But sometimes, the harsh Northern reality interferes. The crash of an Mi-8 helicopter in Svalbard (Spitsbergen),
Putin Hosts Another Valdai to Draw Attention Away From Russia’s Stagnation
The annual meeting of the Valdai discussion club provides a unique opportunity for many Western experts to “meet” with President Vladimir Putin. This year, the Kremlin sought to build up
Moscow Treats New US Strategy for Iran as Great Opportunity
The decision of United States President Donald Trump not to certify the fact that Iran is duly implementing the provisions of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) had been
Russia Is Steered Back Toward Petro-Stagnation
The “historic” trip of King Salman bin Abdulaziz al Saud to Moscow, last week (October 4–7) was an affair long on ceremony, featuring a massive delegation, but rather uncertain regarding
European Assessments and Concerns About Russia’s Policies in the Middle East
Summary European perspectives on Russia’s proactive policies in the Middle East are diverse across countries, political forces and public opinions, and tend to become less compatible with one another. Moscow
Russia Tries to Conclude Its Syrian Venture
The working dinner in Ankara, last Thursday (September 27), between Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and Russian President Vladimir Putin, was not a productive affair or a cordial meeting of
Russia Seeks to Rebuild Its International Respectability
Russian President Vladimir Putin opted not to attend this year’s United Nations General Assembly, in New York City; but he nevertheless kept up the pretense of the wise statesman among
Putin Goes East, but Offers No Solution for North Korean Problem
The fast-escalating crisis in East Asia, driven by the chain of nuclear and missile provocations by the North Korean regime, has upset the carefully prepared agendas of regional politics. In
Russian-US Relations: Stumbling and Slipping Along Road of Rigid Confrontation
The black smoke rising from the chimney of the Russian consulate in San Francisco, last Friday (September 1), made for a perfect symbol of the deepening degeneration of Russia’s relations
Putin’s Foreign Policy Non-Options in Response to US Sanctions
It has gradually dawned on the Russian leadership that the legislation approved by the US Congress amounts not just to some more tightening of sanctions, but to the downgrading of
Can Moscow Benefit From the Unfolding ‘Russia-Gate’ in Washington?
Investigations of Russia’s interference in the 2016 United States presidential election and the impediment this scandal creates for accomplishing any significant policy-making by the US government resonate loudly in Washington,
Corruption Spoils Every Attempt to Cooperate With Russia
Following the long-expected July 7 meeting between United States President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin, at the G20 summit in Hamburg, Germany, the main tangible result was the
Russia Taking Stock on Monday After Hamburg
Last Friday’s (July 7) meeting between President of the United States Donald Trump, and his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, at the G20 summit in Hamburg, Germany, was so intensely anticipated
Four Downward Turns in US-Russian Relations
The trajectory of the manageable but mismanaged confrontation between the United States and Russia has fluctuated since the start of the year. And this past week, it registered at least
Putin Speaks but Gives Few Answers
President Vladimir Putin’s annual call-in show (this year held on June 15) directed at the citizens of Russia, who can ask him any kind of question, was meant to offer
Mess in the Middle East Opens Few Opportunities for Russia
Russia’s best chances to claim a prominent role in the Middle East usually come amidst a regional escalation of tensions. But the confluence of diplomatic rows, terrorist attacks and air
Politics Dominate but Cannot Invigorate Economy in Putin’s Russia
The St. Petersburg Economic Forum (held on June 1–3) is a one-of-a-kind high-profile event, where Russian business elites camouflage their worries through demonstrations of loyalty, and in which high-level lobbying
Moscow Spoils Every Opportunity to Improve Relations With US
The Kremlin continues to cling to hopes that it can build a rapport with the Donald Trump administration; those expectations copiously developed at the start of the year, only to
Russia Celebrates Its Newly Revived Old-Fashioned Militarism
On May 9, columns of tanks will roll through the streets of Moscow, followed by S-400 surface-to-air missiles in Arctic camouflage and cyclopean Topol-M inter-continental ballistic missiles (ICBM), to parade
Moscow Tries to Prod, Exploit European Disunity
Despite the serious escalation of tensions in Northeast Asia in recent weeks, Russian diplomacy has been prioritizing European intrigues. The biggest upcoming event in this context will be the meeting
Russia Absent From North Korean Crisis
This past week’s big and still developing story is the sharp escalation of confrontation on the Korean peninsula. But Russia, which has made itself a key actor to many current
Kremlin Reels From US Missile Strike on Syria
The nearly five dozen Tomahawk cruise missiles that the United States fired on Friday night (April 7) at the Syrian Al-Shayrat airbase produced far more political resonance than kinetic impact.
Putin Demands Improved Russia-US Relations
“Big mistake”—that was how Russian President Vladimir Putin recently described the determined efforts in the United States to investigate Russia’s interference in the US elections last year. He characterized the
Moscow Spins Overextended Intrigues in the Middle East
The whirlwind of Russian scandals continues to spread across government offices in Washington, DC; but in Moscow the impression is gradually forming that those scandals will soon blow over, so
The Problem With Russian Connections Is Corruption, Not Espionage
Revelations of improper and conveniently forgotten meetings and conversations with Russian officials bedevil the Donald Trump administration with such relentless intensity that its ability to perform the basic functions of
Russia Struggles to Come to Terms With Its Past
Late February not only marks a momentous anniversary in Russia’s long and difficult history, but also solemnizes a tragic event from its much more recent past. One hundred years ago
As US-Russian Relations Stagnate, Europe Fears a Jilted Moscow
“Russia is fake news,” asserted United States President Donald Trump at his press conference last Thursday (February 16). This broad statement is both true and false, but in neither case
Tenth Anniversary of Putin’s Munich Speech: A Commitment to Failure
The annual Munich Security Conference will take place later this week (February 17–19). And it was ten years ago at this forum that President Vladimir Putin delivered an inflammatory speech
Russia’s Little War in Ukraine Does Not Help Kremlin to Befriend Trump
The sharp escalation in artillery battles in the Donbas (eastern Ukraine) war zone one day after the January 28 telephone conversation between United States President Donald Trump and Russian President
Much Ado About Trump’s Phone Call With Putin
For Moscow, the first ten days of Donald Trump’s presidency raised enough uncertainty and speculation about his political course in general and intentions regarding Russia in particular to fill the
Russia and China Part Company in Davos
Chinese President Xi Jinping was this year’s star guest at the World Economic Forum in Davos (January 17–20), where the mood of the traditional crowd of successful entrepreneurs and high-flying
Putin’s Dirty Diplomacy Fails to Breach Sanctions Wall
Russia is frequently in the news these days, but its diplomatic successes at the start of the new year have been rather limited. Denials of Moscow’s various misbehaviors aside, the
Jamestown expert Pavel Baev quoted by the Washington Post
Jamestown expert Pavel k. Baev was quoted in a December 5, 2016 Washington Post article titled "Russian Jets Keep Crashing, and It May Be An Aircraft Carrier's Fault." To read
Washington Post quotes Russia expert Pavel Baev
On January 14, The Washington Post quoted regular Eurasia Daily Monitor contributor and Russia expert Pavel Baev on what to expect from Russia-U.S. relations under the Trump administration. Baev provided
Doping and Rosneft tarnish the Remnants of Russia’s Reputation
Two breaking news dominated the political debates and rumor bazaars in Moscow at the end of last week. One was the publication of the World Anti-Doping Agency’s report on the
In Foreign Policy Pause, Putin Tinkers With Domestic Corruption
President Vladimir Putin is scheduled, this Thursday, December 1, to deliver his annual address to the Federal Assembly (upper chamber of the Russian parliament)—and he is short on patriotism-boosting success
Putin Will Find the World According to Trump a Tough Habitat
The outcome of the presidential election in the United States was celebrated in Moscow with such joy and triumphalism as if Russia had scored a major political victory (see EDM,
As US Elections Conclude, Putin Rediscovers Moderation
This year’s United States presidential election campaign may have been like no other before it in the intensity of acrimony and the starkness of choices. But as every other, it
Putin Casts Shadow Over US Presidential Campaign
One striking feature of this year’s United States presidential election campaign has been the invisible but remarkably persistent background presence of Russia and its leader, President Vladimir Putin. Putin can
‘Politkovskaya’s Warning’ and Russian War Crimes in Syria
Last Friday (October 7) marked ten years since the murder of Novaya Gazeta journalist and human rights activist Anna Politkovskaya. And while her killer and several accomplices were convicted, the
Younger Crowd Will Not Rejuvenate Putin’s Court
News and rumors of appointments and dismissals at the top levels of the Russian government have proliferated in recent weeks. And these continue to eclipse the tragic escalation of the
Russian Elections Overshadowed by Rampant Corruption
Last Sunday (September 18), Russians went to the polls to elect the seventh State Duma in the post-Soviet history of their state. It is extremely difficult to say how many
Latest Kerry-Lavrov Deal on Syria Destined to Unravel
The agreement on managing the Syrian civil war, reached between the United States and Russia in Geneva in the early hours of Saturday, September 10, was both surprising and pre-determined.
A String of Intrigues on Putin’s Eastern Tour
The G20 summit in Hangzhou, China (September 4–5), was not expected to produce major news in global governance. But for Russian President Vladimir Putin, it opened a unique opportunity to
Russia’s Economy Deteriorates as Putin Focuses on Squabbles Among Siloviki
President Vladimir Putin is not taking a summer vacation. He has instead maintained a busy schedule of meetings with government officials and regional governors. But his grip on the steering
Dialogue With Russia Produces Universal Frustration
The idea of engaging in more dialogue with Russia is eagerly accepted by the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), is being pursued by the United States, is cultivated by the
Russia Wanders the War Zones and Political Badlands of the Middle East
Russia’s military intervention in Syria is clearly not going well. Last Friday (July 8), another helicopter was reportedly shot down near Palmyra, and the Russian Ministry of Defense, after an
Russia’s ‘Pivot’ to China Is Reduced to High-Level Bonhomie
Expectations regarding President Vladimir Putin’s visit to Beijing on Saturday (June 25) had been rather subdued, and the modest results were mostly immaterial. Last year, the two leaders grandiosely celebrated
Military Force: A Driver Aggravating Russia’s Decline
Looking into the remaining years of the 2010s, it is only too obvious that decline is set to be the dominant trend in Russia, and it is easy to predict
Moscow Promises Responses to US and NATO Activities
Dmitry Peskov, the press secretary to President Vladimir Putin, is generally not known for eloquence. But his comment last week (June 7) about the North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s exercises in
The Futility of Dialogue With Putin
The need to keep the channels of dialogue open with an unpredictable Russia is taken as an absolute imperative by many Western politicians. But they are often surprised when this
Putin Commits to Countering New Strategic ‘Threat’ to Russia
The ceremony of opening the United States’ missile defense base in Deveselu, Romania, last week (Thursday, May 12), was greeted by a barrage of condemnation and criticism from Russian officials
Virtual Militarism Grows Into Real Peril for Russia
Tanks rumbled through Moscow over the past week before rolling across Red Square today (May 9) in the traditional, extravagant military parade marking Victory Day. Unlike in 2015 (which marked
Russia Seeks to Reenergize Its Pivot to the East
Over the past several years, whenever Moscow entered into a difficult encounter on the Western “front,” it has typically tried to show interest in expanding ties in the Asia-Pacific. In
Russia’s Aggressive-Repressive Policies Bring No Long-Term Gains
Claims of “stability” and “confidence” shaped President Vladimir Putin’s answers to the carefully selected questions posed during his annual 220-minute-long live TV call-in program, which aired on April 14. Since
Newly Formed National Guard Cannot Dispel Putin’s Multiple Insecurities
The recent release of the “Panama Papers,” which revealed notorious cases of hidden money flows tied to the global elite, continues to cause a political stir across the world. But
Nuclear Security and Arms Control Are Non-Issues for Russia
Russia’s absence from the nuclear summit in Washington, DC, last week was entirely predictable and yet baffling. Moscow announced its non-participation last November, and Secretary of State John Kerry was
US Diplomacy Feeds Putin’s Sense of Self-Righteousness
President Vladimir Putin may have every reason to be satisfied with the visit of US Secretary of State John Kerry to Moscow last Thursday (March 24). Their meeting lasted no
Putin’s Not-Quite-Withdrawal Signifies a Strategic Retreat
A week after President Vladimir Putin’s surprise announcement (on March 14) of the partial withdrawal of Russian forces from Syria, the parameters of this strategic maneuver are becoming clearer, but
Russia Is Giving up on Its Tragedies—and on Itself
President Vladimir Putin’s approval rating is regularly accepted as a proxy measure for the level of Russia’s internal cohesion. And his support remains on a sky-high plateau, where it has
A Lost Year for Russia
It is the dubious ceasefire in Syria that keeps Russia in the focus of global media attention these days, as if the outcome of this catastrophic civil war actually depends
For Moscow, Talks Are About Sowing Discord, not Solving Conflicts
A ceasefire in Syria, which appeared possible if not probable in early February, has again turned out to be unreachable. And in hindsight, it is rather obvious that it never
Confrontation With the West Becomes Personal for Putin—and Inescapable
Last week’s (January 26) reporting in the Western media that the United States government was linking Russian President Vladimir Putin to corruption has rocked Russian domestic politics. Specifically, a recent
It is Indecision Time for Putin, as Russia Muddles Through
The annual Davos gathering of the World Economic Forum used to be an occasion where Russia’s always uncertain future was a key topic for debates and investment decisions, but this
Russia Bargains and Bluffs for Breakthrough in Ukraine
For months, the various negotiations formats on conflict management in Ukraine appeared deadlocked. But suddenly, in mid-January 2016, signs of a breakthrough in the making have multiplied—bringing both hopes and
Russia’s Economic Degradation as Putin’s New Norm
This Monday (January 11), Russia begins its traditionally delayed entry into the new year without any breaking geopolitical news but with an unusually dark economic outlook. Throughout the whole, lengthy,
Russian Strategy Seeks to Defy Economic Decline With Military Bravado
President Vladimir Putin concluded 2015 with the approval of a revised National Security Strategy, which defines the strengthening of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) as a threat and commits
Russian Intervention in Syria
Russia launched its intervention in Syria at the end of September 2015, immediately after President Vladimir Putin’s grandiloquent but uninspired speech at the United Nations General Assembly. At first glance,
Putin Cannot Swallow the Turkish Insult—and Cannot Retaliate
President Vladimir Putin is visiting Paris this week for the COP21 climate forum, but environmental matters will not be high on his personal agenda. Indeed, probably the only proposal Russia
Putin’s Russia Seeks Place in International Anti-Terrorism Coalition
President Vladimir Putin responded promptly to the November 13 terrorist attacks in Paris with a telegram to French President François Hollande that condemned the “barbaric nature of terrorism, which challenges
Vienna Talks Chart a Way to Russian Departure From Syria
The long-stagnant process of trying to conclude Syria’s devastating civil war was reinvigorated last week (October 30), when as many as 19 delegations gathered in Vienna for an eight-hour-long round
Putin’s Desperation Deepens as His Blunders Accumulate
Russian foreign policy took an unexpected turn and suffered a serious setback last week when President Vladimir Putin suggested sending to Washington a delegation headed by Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev,
Pavel Baev Interviewed by CNN
Long-time Russia expert Pavel Baev was interviewed by CNN, on October 15, regarding Russian's air campaign over Syria.
Putin Swings From Ukrainian Deadlock to Syrian Quagmire
The Russian air campaign in Syria has captured so much international attention that this past Friday’s (October 2) difficult summit in Paris, involving French President François Hollande, German Chancellor Angela
Will Russian Military Intervention in Syria Continue After Today?
The United Nations General Assembly will hear today (September 28) the long-promised address by President Vladimir Putin, which is unlikely to contain any shocking surprises. The main content of his
Putin’s Pivot to China: Profit-Free, but Problem-Rich
China will host a huge military parade in Beijing on September 3, and President Vladimir Putin will be in attendance—returning President Xi Jinping’s earlier gesture of Sino-Russian partnership, which the
Jamestown Analyst Pavel Baev Quoted in Politico
Long-time Russia expert and Jamestown analyst Pavel K. Baev was quoted in an August 18 article of Politico regarding the state of Russia's military reforms, industry and capabilities.
Russia’s Reputation Sinks Precipitously in International Opinion Polls
While breaking the norms of international behavior at its own discretion, Russia may fancy itself a champion of change in the world order; but in fact, it is increasingly seen
Russia Insists on Own Impunity, Gains Pariah Status
The Russian nyet in the United Nations Security Council, which blocked the resolution on setting up an international tribunal on the downing of Malaysian Airlines Flight 17 over eastern Ukraine,
How Long Can Putin Continue Doing Nothing?
Russia had all but disappeared from the international arena in the last couple of weeks, particularly following the July 14 signing of the international de-nuclearization deal reached with Iran. Indeed,
The Air Tragedy That Condemned Putin’s Russia
It was a year ago last Friday (July 17) that the Boeing 777 Malaysian Airlines Flight 17, flying from Amsterdam to Kuala Lumpur, was shot down by a missile over
NYT Quotes Jamestown Russia Expert Pavel Baev
Regular contributor to Jamestown's Eurasia Daily Monitor Pavel Baev was quoted by The New York Times, on July 15, regarding Moscow's reluctant approach toward the Iran nuclear deal.
Greek Agreement and Iranian Deal Leave Russia Disappointed and Irrelevant
It was a rare coincidence in world politics that two pivotal and protracted negotiation processes—the European Union’s talks with Greece on managing its debt, and the “P5+1” talks on managing
Putin’s Economic Forum: Delays, Obfuscations and Irrelevance
The annual St. Petersburg economic forum used to be a major gathering of investors and stakeholders, who would anticipate President Vladimir Putin’s keynote speech every year for hints about where
Celebrating Russia Day, the Country Finds Itself With No Future
The meaning of Russia Day, the holiday celebrated last Friday, June 12, remains obscure and even foreign for the majority of Russians. Overall, the population has mixed feelings about the
Aborted Offensive in Donbas on Eve of G7 Summit
It was hardly surprising that the fragile ceasefire in eastern Ukraine was broken last week by an exchange of artillery and tank fire after weeks of deployment of Russian troops
Weakening Russia Curtails Population’s Access to Publicly Available Information
Russia’s deteriorating economic situation is exacerbating the various social problems in the country, and the authorities are apparently finding no other way to deal with such issues but to shut
The Kremlin Grows Nervous About the Future—and With Good Reason
It is still difficult to figure out what sorts of conclusions President Vladimir Putin drew from the long meeting he held with US Secretary of State John Kerry two weeks
Dubious Outcomes of Kerry’s Meeting With Putin in Sochi
Russia is slowly recovering from this month’s (May 9) celebrations of the Soviet Union’s victory over Nazi Germany 70 years ago, but remains reluctant to take stock of the problems
After the Swaggering Celebrations, a ‘Now What?’ Moment for Russia
The Victory Day parade on the Red Square in Moscow last Saturday (May 9) was a glorious and perfectly smooth affair, which duly filled the hearts of millions of Russians
Putin’s Political Pause Amid National Mobilization
As if trying to compensate for his recent “disappearance” in early March, President Vladimir Putin participated in a series of high-intensity meetings and public events last week. His domestic audiences
Gazprom Must Compromise on EU Charges, but Putin Cannot
The European Commission delivered, on April 22, a “statement of objections” resulting from its probe launched back in September 2012, which amounts to charging Gazprom with abusing its dominant position
The Faltering Russian Economy Makes a Renewed Ukraine Offensive More Likely
“Boring” is perhaps the prevalent impression of President Vladimir Putin’s televised four-hour-long Q & A session that aired last Thursday (April 16), which was meant to demonstrate his good health
Iranian Deal Leaves Russia in Deeper Isolation
Moscow tried its best to present the hard-negotiated deal in Lausanne, Switzerland, on curtailing and controlling the Iranian nuclear program as a success of its firm diplomatic position for a
Putin’s Conveniently Imperfect Memory
The Kremlin press service announced last week that President Vladimir Putin would not celebrate the 15th anniversary of his first election, which occurred on March 26, 2000 (RBC.ru, March 26).
Two Summits and a Military Exercise
The postponed Russia-Belarus-Kazakhstan summit took place last Friday (March 20) in Astana, but the program was cut so short that the only point for staging the event appeared to be
Putin’s Disappearing Act May Be Sign of Leadership Crisis
For the past week and a half, the main topic for political speculation on the Russian Internet—but not on state-run TV—was the disappearance of President Vladimir Putin from all public
Free Rein of Special Services Makes Russia Ungovernable
It took a week for the Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) to produce a pair of plausible suspects in the shocking murder of Boris Nemtsov on February 28 (see EDM,
Murder That Revealed Truth
The photograph that hit millions of computer and smartphone screens late Friday (February 27) night, Moscow time, has instantly become a clear-focused image of what Russia has become amidst the
After Debaltseve—Is There Chance for Ceasefire?
It is entirely correct to say that the “Minsk Two” agreement, reached on February 12, after painstakingly long talks between the leaders of Ukraine, Russia, France and Germany, was broken
Diplomacy Delivers Another Pause for Struggling Ukraine and Sinking Russia
The week of February 2 registered an explosion in political intrigue around the war in eastern Ukraine, and some sort of pause in hostilities is likely to ensue. Undoubtedly, this
Russia Makes Haste in Severing Ties With Europe
Russia has achieved much success last week in its rush toward self-isolation, and perhaps the most demonstrative step was made in the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE).
Amid Mounting Domestic Troubles, Putin Tries to Regain the Initiative in Eastern Ukraine
The sharp escalation of hostilities in eastern Ukraine last week (January 22) has disheartened many in Europe who had hoped for a gradual resolution of the Ukraine conflict. On the
Futile Hope for the Dubious Summit in Astana
Despite the apparent deadlock in armed clashes in eastern Ukraine, an idea to bringing together the presidents of Russia and Ukraine, together with their peers from Belarus and Kazakhstan as
Russia Enters New Year Mired in Troubles
The post–New Year holidays in Russia have brought less joy or happy expectations than usual to the country’s elites, the urban middle classes and even to Russia’s millions of labor
Putin Pledges to Stay the Course, Hits a Dead End
The Kremlin has a lot to explain following the dangerous deterioration of Russia’s international situation and the drastic degradation of its economy. And President Vladimir Putin opted in his annual
With Ukraine Going Strong, Putin Becomes Lost in Fog of Hybrid War
Last weekend (November 21), Ukraine marked the first anniversary of the EuroMaidan—the public protests in Kyiv that lasted through the hard winter of discontent and brought down the corrupt regime
Putin’s Eastern Tour Leaves Troubled Russia in Limbo
The G20 summit in Brisbane, Australia, was the last event in President Vladimir Putin’s lengthy Eastern tour that started on November 9, with a visit to China prior to the
Putin Goes to China, but Fails to Turn His Illusions Into Reality
In a case of striking symbolism, President Vladimir Putin traveled to Beijing on the 25th anniversary of the fall of the Berlin Wall, as if seeking reassurance against the specter
Putin Steals the Asia-Europe Show—and Brings Big Disappointment
The most recent Asia-Europe Meeting (ASEM) summit attracted a sizeable crowd of world leaders to Milan last week (October 16–17), but the formal agenda was overtaken by the efforts to
De-Modernization and Degradation—A Net Assessment of Russia’s Domestic Situation Since the Start of 2014
Considering Russia’s shocking transformation in the course of just half a year, it is easy to forget that last February the country was united in the joy of hosting the
Forget the Economy—It’s Geopolitics, Putin
The trickle of sad and sour economic news continues to exacerbate Russia’s stagnant economic outlook, but the Kremlin authorities remain resolutely indifferent to these negative trends. They presume that the
Jamestown Analyst Pavel Baev Interviewed by EUobserver
On September 30, EUobserver interviewed Jamestown Russia analyst Pavel K. Baev about Vladimir Putin's claims to be able to attack Europe within two days.
Russia Gears up for a New Spasm in the Hybrid War
Big guns have mostly remained silent in eastern Ukraine last week, but diplomatic battles at the United Nations General Assembly have not shown any recess. Russia used to be able
The Pause in the Ukraine War Is Not Putin’s Victory
The tragic battles around Donetsk and Luhansk (collectively known as the Donbas region) have taken a pause, and as civilians try to rebuild a semblance of normal life, leaders are
Assaulting Ukraine, Putin Dares the West to Respond
The summit of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) that opens in the Welsh Celtic Manor resort tomorrow (September 4) will feature the Ukraine crisis as an agenda item of
Putin Picks the Worst of All Bad Choices
With the arrival of August, political expectations in Russia, informed by the long experience of setbacks and disasters, are turning negative. Second thoughts about the “victorious” war with Georgia that
West Pushes and Eases Putin Toward a ‘Diplomatic Solution’ in Ukraine
Bad news hit the Kremlin thick and fast last week, but on Friday evening (August 1), President Vladimir Putin answered a phone call from US President Barack Obama, who again
Putin Held Personally Responsible for a War He Is Losing
If President Vladimir Putin really thought that the destruction of Flight MH17 with 298 people on board would soon blow over, the White House statement from last Friday must have
Putin Pressured to Back Down, but War in Eastern Ukraine Has Own Momentum
Thursday’s (July 17) missile hit on Malaysian Airlines Flight MH17 that killed 298 people and left a field of scattered remains in the Donetsk region, some 50 kilometers away from
Putin Tours Latin America, but His Fate Is Decided in Ukraine
The upcoming BRICS (a loose political-economic grouping of the large emerging economies of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) summit, scheduled to take place in Fortaleza, Brazil, on July
Moscow Pulls a Diplomatic Pause as the War in Ukraine Rages
The most dramatic turn in the protracted Ukrainian calamity last week was the decision of President Petro Poroshenko to end the ceasefire and resume the offensive against separatists in the
Putin Keeps Retreating from War but Cannot Accept Peace
The big picture of the Ukrainian conflict has changed significantly during the last week as this troubled state confirmed its hard-made European choice. The hundreds of rebels fighting in the
Russia Returns to Strategy of Escalation, Derailing Ukrainian Ceasefire
The peace plan advanced last Friday (June 20) by President Petro Poroshenko aimed to reassert the integrity of the Ukrainian state, yet it may mark a new escalation of hostilities
Putin Comes to a Decision Point on Ukraine—and Falters
For the last month, important engagements have filled Russian President Vladimir Putin’s schedule: the official visit to China, the signing of the treaty on the Eurasian Economic Union with Belarus
Could Normandy Help Ukraine Contain Russia?
Russian President Vladimir Putin had more meetings than could have been expected with his European peers and even with US President Barack Obama during the ceremonies in Normandy last Friday
Putin’s Eurasian Project Aggravates Russia’s Problems
The ceremony in Astana last Thursday (May 29) on signing the Eurasian Economic Union between Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan was a surprisingly business-like affair. The lack of fanfare reflected the
Going to Beijing, Putin Opted for Backing off in Ukraine
A week ago, after the boost of patriotic emotions in the Victory Day celebrations and the blatantly fake quasi-referenda in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions (see EDM, May 12, 14),
Russia Celebrates Victory and Creeps Into a New War
Tanks and missiles rolled as usual through Moscow’s Red Square on May 9, marking Victory Day against Nazi Germany. In Russia, this commemoration has changed over the last decade from
Derailing De-Escalation, Moscow Drives the Ukrainian Crisis to the Brink of War
The week following Easter (April 20) saw some signs of restraint in the behavior of the key parties to the Ukrainian catastrophe, but each of the last ten days has
The Gas Offensive With Spetsnaz Probing Strikes in the Ukrainian Campaign
Inevitably, Russia is trying to regain the initiative in the Ukrainian crisis by applying the most powerful instrument of its foreign policy—the export of natural gas to Europe. Last Thursday
International Isolation Begins to Affect Russia
As the charged pause in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict drags on, policymakers in Moscow discover that their bold breakthrough into the territory beyond the boundaries of international law has brought rather
Putin Takes a Pause, but His Next Move May Be Compulsory
After the rapid sequence of actions culminating in its annexation of Crimea in mid-March, Russia has only slightly increased pressure on Ukraine during the last week. Rather, President Vladimir Putin
Fake ‘Referendum’ in Crimea Sets a Real Watershed for Russia
The only real result from the hastily organized and crudely manipulated political act in Crimea last Sunday (March 16)—which should not be called a “referendum,” because it had nothing to
Russia Puts Itself in Peril by Dismembering Ukraine
One unique feature of the still surging crisis in Ukraine is the intensity of high-level communications between the key parties to it—which should have eliminated the possibility of misunderstanding, but
Obama Slaps Putin’s Hand in Crimea—to Little Avail
The two telephone conversations between United States President Barack Obama and Russian President Vladimir Putin on March 2 and February 22 marked a dramatic deterioration of relations caused by the
Russia Ready to Give the Falling Ukraine a Push—and Might Follow Suit
The long telephone conversation between United States President Barack Obama and Russian President Vladimir Putin in the earliest hours of last Saturday was remarkable in its surrealistic detachment from the
Hesitantly Assertive Germany Sizes up Imperiously Assertive Russia
Absorbed with the drama on the Sochi ski tracks and hockey rinks, the Russians cannot fail to notice that the athletic superpower that is confidently leading in the Olympic medal
The Sochi Games and the Russian Dream Yet to Come True
The opening ceremony of the Sochi Winter Olympic Games (February 7) was just about picture-perfect, and the sizeable legion of critics, including most of the home-grown disbelievers in the ability
In Munich, Little Talk From or About Russia
Russian politics is currently heavily obsessed with the Winter Olympic Games, which will finally begin in Sochi this week (February 7). President Vladimir Putin is receiving reports about the heroic
Davos Discussions Disprove Russia’s Resurgence
So much self-congratulating has been emanating from the Kremlin following the spectacular triumphs of Russian foreign policy since September 2013, that the court of President Vladimir Putin prefers to ignore
Misplaced and Miscalculated Risk Assessments of Putin’s Games
The pre-planned introduction of an extra-tough security regime around Sochi last Tuesday (January 7) has brought an escalation of concerns about safety at the 22nd Winter Olympic Games, which will
Russia Enters a Year of Post-Olympic Blues
Seasonal festivities have been unusually subdued in Russia this year—families at every income level and of any ethnic composition are finding it difficult to forget their worries and focus on
Maidan Stands Against Putin’s Plan to Buy Ukraine on the Cheap
Typically, before delivering the annual address to the parliament, President Vladimir Putin takes a pause in order to build up expectations and create the impression of thoughtful work being carried
Putin’s Ukrainian Triumph Is a Major Setback for Russia
The Ukrainian government’s shocking decision to put on hold the process of finalizing the Association Agreement with the European Union, announced last Thursday (November 21), a week prior the momentous
Iran’s New Flexibility Exposes Russia’s Arrogance and Irrelevance
The nearly achieved breakthrough in the six-party talks in Geneva, which are focused on the Iranian nuclear program, caught Moscow by surprise and signified a serious setback for Russia’s foreign
Lawlessness as the Central Pillar of Putin’s Authority
Last week, in a clear signal to its neighbors, Moscow assertively demonstrated two key attributes of Russia’s state power. In particular, on October 30, Russian strategic forces conducted a large-scale
Moscow Becomes an Intersection for Two Waves of Anti-Regime Protests
The dramatic resolution of the fiscal-political crisis in the United States was barely noticed in Moscow last week (October 16–17) as two dissimilar events of a local character but heavy
Putin’s Valdai Vision and Sochi Olympics Preparations Underscore Failure
It is hardly surprising that the Russian opposition was not awarded the Nobel Peace prize this year. It remains in a state of disarray, and the veterans who enjoy international
Putin in Denial About Economic Stagnation, and in a Rage About Arctic Sovereignty
State budgets are a difficult topic of debate in all countries. And Russia, which used to pass them fairly easily, is now facing some unpleasant realities related to the 2014
Putin’s Machine of Repression Destroying the Legitimacy of His Regime
Each time President Vladimir Putin seeks to assert the restoration of political stability in Russia and capture some moral high ground, an embarrassing case of blatant repression comes up to
Putin Tries to Build on the Success of His Syrian Coup
During the last week (see EDM, September 12), the diplomatic dance around Syria has acquired the intensity of a whirling dervish, but the civil war continues very much as usual.
Neither the G20 Summit, Nor the Moscow Elections Went According to Putin’s Script
Hardly any feeling of political resolution exists in Russia after the two events that focused attention and expectations for the whole summer: the G20 summit in St. Petersburg and the
The Policy of Procrastination Expires at the Junction of Russia’s Crises
The end of summer has brought Russia to the intersection of several long-brewing crises that the authorities sought to mitigate by applying palliative half-measures and postponing hard decisions. In foreign
Problem-Rich Context for the Obama-Putin Non-Summit
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu’s visit to Washington last Friday could have repaired some damage from the predictably canceled presidential summit in Moscow, but the
Xenophobia Becomes a Thorn for Putin’s Bubble
Last week, Edward Snowden departed from the Sheremetyevo Airport—though not to a dubious “safe haven” like Bolivia but to an undisclosed location in Russia as his plea for a temporary
Local Politics in Moscow Goes Global
Last week, Alexei Navalny re-entered the Moscow mayoral election campaign after his implausible release from jail the day after being condemned to five years behind bars on a blatantly fabricated
Navalny Becomes Only Real Thing in Fake Russian Politics
A hot and lazy summer in Moscow has turned into a feverish political season last week by the torrent of breaking news—all of them created by Alexei Navalny, who has
The Disappearing Sense of Talking to Putin
Last Friday night (July 12), United States President Barack Obama took a deep breath and called Russian President Vladimir Putin, perhaps assuming that talking is better than trading invectives via
The Issue of Neutrality in Putin’s Russia
Barely noticed in the United States and Europe, where security analysts pile their files on Egypt on top of dossiers on Brazil and Turkey, the political crisis in Russia reached
Russian Economy Stagnates and Simulates Success on the Wane of Putin’s Watch
The annual St. Petersburg economic forum provided for President Vladimir Putin a perfect retreat from the deadlocked debates on negotiating a ‘political solution’ for the civil war in Syria as
Stalin’s Shadow over the Post-Reset Meeting Between Putin and Obama
The Group of Eight (G8) summits have traditionally been seen more for their vanity than substance, and the one that opens today (June 17) in Lough Erne, Northern Ireland, will
Turkish Turmoil Adds Unpredictability to Putin’s Creeping Coup
The explosion of public protests in Istanbul makes a strong but ambivalent impression on the development of the vacillating political crisis in Russia; the state-controlled Russian television channels prefer to
Russia’s Predicament and the Plight of One Economist
The Russia–European Union summit opens today (June 3) in Yekaterinburg, according to the twice-yearly schedule and amidst mutual irritation and disappearing expectations. Quarrels about the Syrian calamity are unavoidable. The
The Spy Story: An Episode in Russia’s Confusion
As spy scandals go, the one in Moscow last week (May 14) could set a new record for oddity and senselessness. Accused Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) agent Ryan Fogle (29)
What Surkov’s Ousting Signifies About Russia’s Course in Syria
Russia has captured much political attention in the West in the last few days because of its allegedly central role in the deadlocked civil war in Syria. Yet, in the
Kerry Succeeds in Faking Respect for Putin, but Fails in Building Trust with Russia
The first days of May were a political lull in Russia as the lazy semi-official May 1 manifestations coincided closely with the celebration of Orthodox Easter. But the start of
Radicalization and Simulation Intertwine in Putin’s Russia
The news that the Boston terrorists are ethnic Chechens who have lived in the United States for many years may be shocking for many Americans, but in Russia it does
Putin Adopts Stalin’s Style, but Remains a Late Oligarch’s Legacy
Boris Berezovsky, an entrepreneur and politician who personified the loaded term “oligarch,” effortlessly dominated the political debates in Moscow last week after his mysterious death in a mansion outside London
The Cyprus Test for Russian Foreign and Economic Policies
The Cyprus issue has dominated political debates and intrigues in Moscow through last week, turning into a test of sorts for Russia’s ability to respond to acute external challenges. The
Russia’s History Is Too Tragic and Its Society Too Complex to Fit into Putin’s Worldview
A stunning historical discovery was made at the first meeting of the revived Russian Military History Society when President Vladimir Putin asserted that the Bolsheviks used Finnish “armed formations” for
Chagrin and Ambivalence in Putin’s Foreign Policy
Entering the second year of his third presidency, President Vladimir Putin has shown uncharacteristically scant interest to foreign policy matters perhaps suspecting that Western “partners” are sponsoring Russia’s opposition movement
Putin Looks for an Escape from the Dead End of His Presidency
The end of a full year after Vladimir Putin was elected president on March 4, 2012, coincided very closely with the 60th anniversary of Josef Stalin’s death, which greatly shocked
Capital Flight from Russia Tells a Tale About Regime Failure
Last week marked the anniversary of the shocking performance staged by the Pussy Riot punk rock group in the Christ the Savior Cathedral in Moscow. And this year saw a
Disarray Among Putin’s Elites Deepens as Russia’s Self-Isolation Progresses
The meteor that exploded over Chelyabinsk in the early hours of February 15, as damaging as it was, produced even more jokes than material destruction. One of those was about
The Munich Shadow over the US-Russian Post-Reset
The traditional Munich security conference had a particular and very different meaning last weekend for US Vice President Joseph Biden and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, who had an hour-long
Davos Finds Few Reasons to Invest in Russia—or to Take Medvedev Seriously
Discussions about Russia’s future at the World Economic Forum (WEF) are traditionally prompted by the interests of potential investors rather than ambitions of its leaders. And this year, investor attention
Militarism Is a Poor Fit for Putin’s ‘Patriotic’ Kleptocracy
The need to mobilize the core support base and re-invent a drive for the aging bureaucratic regime is recognized very clearly in the Kremlin, despite the desire to close out
Russia Takes Pause After Incredible Year of Discoveries and Disappointments
Early January is a period of partying and hibernation in Russia. Yet, this pause also provides an opportunity to reflect on the incredible ups and downs of the past year.
Russia Steps and Slips into Foreign Policy Limbo
The notion of “re-Sovietization” has been on the lips of many Russia-watchers, and now US State Secretary Hillary Clinton has spelled it out after a rather disappointing meeting with Russian
Putin Attempts a Comeback as His Leadership Becomes Precarious
Winter hit Moscow furiously in the last days of November causing colossal traffic jams, but the political climate remains hot as if the electoral season and the government reshuffle did
Putin’s Repressive Power Is Tested and Found Lacking
A capacity for unleashing targeted repressions is crucial for the survival of authoritarian regimes, and President Vladimir Putin finds it increasingly difficult to demonstrate that he has such a capacity—or
Setbacks and Squabbles in Russia’s Foreign Policy
The Kremlin is moving from confusion to controversy in international affairs, a policy area which used to boost Russia’s “great power” status and bring joy to its leaders. Moscow cannot
Andropov’s Shadow over the Kremlin Clan Feuds
The Russian political class had hardly any time last week to contemplate the consequences of US President Barack Obama’s re-election for a second term or to follow the tense atmosphere
US Elections Deepen the Divergence Between Russia’s and Putin’s Interests
The choice that the United States will make tomorrow is certain to have a strong impact on US-Russia relations, but President Vladimir Putin cannot figure out what outcome will suit
Russian Puzzle: Change Inevitable, Evolution Impossible, Revolution Implausible
The Moscow rumor about President Vladimir Putin’s health problems appears well-informed and confirmed by several cancellations of long-scheduled visits and by the postponement of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS)
Indecision Time for Putin as Russia Drifts Toward Stagnant Authoritarianism
Russia’s departure from quasi-democracy is beyond doubt, but it drifts rather than marches toward a debilitated and corrupt authoritarianism as Vladimir Putin’s third presidency settles into a tedious pattern. The
Jamestown Analyst Pavel Baev Quoted by Voice of America
Pavel Baev was quoted by Voice of America in an article concerning Baghdad's weapon purchases from Moscow.
Jamestown Analyst Pavel Baev Quoted in Global Post
Jamestown Analyst Pavel Baev was quoted in an article by Global Post about an antitrust investigation launched by the European Commission into Gazprom's European Trading Operations.
Putin’s Jubilee Finds Him Clueless, Isolated and Ridiculed
President Vladimir Putin quietly celebrated his 60th birthday on October 7 behind the high walls of one of his residences. But his minions, viceroys and oligarchs across the country are
Russian Foreign Policy Turns “Protectionist” as the Regime Crisis Deepens
One low-profile remonstration in the last week of September emphasized the pronounced tendency to self-isolation in Russian foreign policy in the late autumnal cycle of Putin’s regime. Sergei Naryshkin, the
One Year After Declaring His Return to Kremlin, Putin’s Heavy-Handed Rule Alienating Key Constituencies
There is something ambiguous about Vladimir Putin’s third presidential term—as if it has happened by chance or was awarded to him by a reverential electorate with no expectations that he
Political Autumn in Russia Blows Hot and Cold
The end of summer has instantly switched Russian politics to full gear as events and challenges are crowding the agenda and confusing the trajectory of the oscillating but not dissipating
Blindness and Blunders Propel Putin’s Regime to Isolation
There is no August lull in Russian politics this year, and the atmosphere in the country is thickening as President Vladimir Putin resorts to tougher and dirtier methods of upholding
Putin Turns to Patriotism as the Support Base of Last Resort
There is no royal tourism to Siberian natural preserves or Black Sea beaches for President Vladimir Putin this August; instead, he is hurrying from the naval shipyard in Severodvinsk to
Policy-Making in the Kremlin Is Shaped by Delusions and Fears
Last Thursday, President Vladimir Putin held a meeting with the leaders of the parties represented in the State Duma and responded to the official opposition’s very delicate reservations with the
Putin’s Counter-Reform Props up His Dysfunctional Regime by Amplifying Uncertainty
The main news in Russia last week was the tragedy of the flash flood in Krymsk, much the same way as a year ago it was the sinking of the
A Post-Putin Interregnum Takes Shape in the Minds of Putin’s Elite
July has brought a drought to the Russian political climate; even the rise in communal tariffs has barely registered as the urban dwellers migrate en masse to their dachas. The
Russian Opposition Is Tested and Stiffens Under Pressure
The lull in street protests in Moscow is seen by President Vladimir Putin’s administration as a perfect opportunity to squeeze and discredit the leaders of the disunited opposition and thus
Stagnating Russian Economy Is Officially Invincible to Crisis
Economic preaching and demagogy shaped debates in Russia last week as President Vladimir Putin partook in the G20 summit in Los Cabos, Mexico, and Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev attended the
Experiments with Repression in Russia Are Tempered by the Oil Business
Two stories dominated the news-cycle in Moscow last week: the targeted police investigations against several opposition leaders on the eve and in the aftermath of the big rally on June
Protests in Moscow Gain New Momentum and Come to a New Territory
The protest rally planned for June 12 will probably not be much different in numbers and slogans from the half dozen rallies that Moscow has seen since the blatantly fraudulent
Putin Opens a New European Offensive and Plays Hard-Ball with US
The Russia-EU summit that takes places today (June 4) in Strelna outside St. Petersburg was pre-scheduled as a routine event without any significant predicted achievements. But President Vladimir Putin did
Putin’s Cadre Reshuffle Brings No New Energy but Much Old Cronyism
Last Friday, the administration of President Vladimir Putin and the government of Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev had a get-together at a cozy palace outside Moscow, but the mood was rather
Putin Begins to Notice that Putinism Has Stopped Working
Hardly more than a handful of experts in Moscow paid attention to the G8 summit in Camp-David last week-end, and President Vladimir Putin’s absence accentuated the impression that Russia does
Putin Cannot Go to Camp David
Instead of marking a closure for the turbulent period of ugly elections, Vladimir Putin’s presidential inauguration opened a new phase in the political crisis in Russia. The activities have centered
Putin Begins the Countdown of His Rule
Vladimir Putin’s presidential inauguration has taken place today in the Kremlin with all the ceremonial pomp and fanfare that is supposed to create the impression of invincibility of his quasi-monarchic
Medvedev Makes His Farewell and Putin Settles into the Old Course
Traditional May holidays have arrived to Russia, and while the Victory Day parade will be the usual rumbling of heavy weapons over Red Square, it is Vladimir Putin’s third presidential
Putin Tries to Talk the Crisis out of Escalation
Orthodox Easter was celebrated in Russia last Sunday with all the ceremonial pomp and official hypocrisy, but it has hardly produced any calming effect on the brewing political crisis. Ahead
Squabbles and Splits in Putin’s Nomenklatura Mar His New Presidency
A major advantage of the scheme for consensual rotation between Prime Minister Vladimir Putin and President Dmitri Medvedev by the means of presidential elections was supposed to be a low
No Joy for Putin in Hand-Managing the Post-Election Economy
The “spring retreat” in the protest activity in Moscow has brought relief and jubilation to the Kremlin and the White House (the one on the Moskva River) where courtiers now
Dirty Elections Grant Putin Disappearing Power
There were few reasons to expect that Vladimir Putin would show a generosity of heart after the moving-to-tears but dubious victory in the presidential elections two weeks ago. Grounds for
The Opposition and Putin Remain on a Collision Course
In the first post-election week, the political landscape in Russia has remained distorted and unsettled by expectations of probable aftershocks. Vladimir Putin, who had turned his election campaign into a
Putin’s Chain of Bad Choices Is Set to Continue After the Elections
There is hardly much space for doubt about the outcome of the presidential elections in Russia: Every administrative resource was mobilized and every propaganda tool was deployed to ensure the
Putin Leads a War-Like Campaign Toward a Crushing but Hollow Victory
The last two weeks before the Russian presidential elections on March 4 saw a pronounced turn toward more aggressive and populist-patriotic campaigning by Vladimir Putin, who appears to be on
Putin Promises Changes and Curtails Reforms
On the final stretch of the presidential campaign, Prime Minister Vladimir Putin rushes from one region to another demonstrating attention to local needs and asserting his readiness to lead the
Putin is Firmly Set to Win Ugly
There has been a perceptible change of mood in the development of the political crisis in Russia in the week that has passed since the mass rallies in Moscow –
The Anti-Putin Momentum Between Davos, Courchevel and Bolotnaya Square
There has been much more talk about Greece than about Russia at the World Economic Forum last week, which shows that the Davos crowd typically tries to discern the future
The Political Economy of the Russian Revolution in the Making
The Russian economy generates no drivers for a political crisis – this elementary proposition underpins Prime Minister Vladimir Putin’s steady march to the presidential elections that are just six weeks
Putin Tries to Regain Initiative While Remaining Out of Touch
There were no New Year holidays for Prime Minister Vladimir Putin and his sycophants because the need to take back the political initiative from the opposition was urgent. The next
Russian Literature and Blogosphere Join Forces Against Putinism
In the holiday pause, it has become even more apparent that the revitalized Russian politics has acquired a new and rather untraditional character. Nobody is remotely interested in where President
Russia Reluctantly Enters Into a New Revolution
Russia has sunk into the usual hibernation of long seasonal holidays, but quite unusually it now lives simultaneously in two very different new years. The first one was planned very
Street Politics Makes a Comeback In Moscow
The Saturday rally in Moscow gathered so many thousands and generated such a resonance that all concerned parties – the authorities, the participants and the abstainers – have to quickly
Questions About Putin’s Intentions Loom After the Duma Elections
Expectations about the State Duma elections on December 4, were a record low, but all the political actors have reasons to claim success. The Kremlin-controlled United Russia is set to
Russia Faces Elections That Will Decide Nothing
In the last week before the State Duma elections, the only real question is how low the support for the dominant United Russia party has actually fallen. Opinion polls four
Putin Is Ready For Problems With the United States
The traditional meeting of the international Valdai club with Prime Minister Vladimir Putin on Friday lasted long into the night but still was an indubitable letdown. The privilege of raising
Russia Ponders the Eurozone Calamity
President Dmitry Medvedev started his final round of top level meetings with the trip to Cannes where the leaders of the twenty largest world economic powers gathered to discuss measures
Farcical Elections and Court Scandals Replace Politics In Stagnating Russia
The event of crucial importance for Russia’s wellbeing happened last week in Brussels where EU leaders managed to put together a half-deal on containing the Greek debt crisis and on
Libyan Lessons For Putin’s Russia
The poignant comment by John McCain that dictators all over the world “may be a little bit more nervous” after the death of Muammar Gaddafi has generated sharp resonance in
Putin Sends the “What Reset?” Message to the West
Vladimir Putin made his first visit in his new status of president-all-but-elect to China last week and used this opportunity to emphasize the unprecedented level of trust between the leaders
Economic Stagnation In Russia Becomes Personal for Putin
The crucial economic signal for Russia last week was the price slide for the Urals oil blend below the $100 per barrel level, which is not only a symbolic watershed
Medvedev Tries to Prove His Relevance In the Putin-Centric State
The first week of Vladimir Putin’s reinstated monopoly on power was marked by Dmitry Medvedev’s persistent attempts to prove that his presidency did not end on September 24, when he
Moscow Dithers Over New Scandal and Forgets the Old Tragedy
The gathering of the marginal but officially registered Pravoe Delo (Right Cause) political party last week resulted in a massive scandal that has effectively destroyed it and resonated strongly in
Medvedev Edges to the End of His Presidency With a Whimper
There was a peculiar symbolism in the generally forgettable visit by British Prime Minister David Cameron to Moscow last week that was intended to draw a line under the five
Old Political Farce for a New Russia
The new political season in Russia officially started last week with the decree on holding the State Duma elections on December 4 signed by President Dmitry Medvedev in front of
Putin Ignores the Gathering Economic Storm
The volatile turbulence that battered the world economy last week should have passed Russia by, but it did not. Indeed, Russia is not burdened by a massive debt, is spared
Medvedev Reflects On the Georgia War and On Himself
President Dmitry Medvedev’s interview on August 5 about the causes and consequences of the August 2008 war with Georgia contained little news and more than a few lies, but it
The Prospect of Putin’s Return Comes Into Focus
As it happens all too often in Russian rumor-ridden politics, news that is taken seriously comes from abroad, and the Reuters analysis on Prime Minister Vladimir Putin’s newly-crystallized intention to
What Has Happened to the Russian Elections?
The parliamentary elections in Russia are some 18 weeks away, but the campaign that appeared lively earlier this year has all but exhausted itself. One of the three minor parliamentary
Germany Awards Putin the “Enough-is-Enough” Prize
Until July 16, Prime Minister Vladimir Putin had every reason to believe that his plan for moving back to the Kremlin for the third presidential term is not only unassailable
Medvedev and Putin Try In Vain to Shake the Siloviki Into Order
Elections in Russia are not about selling a vision or swaying the electorate, they concern showing who is the boss – and demonstrating that the boss means business. In this
Medvedev Fails In Mediating a Compromise Between Armenia and Azerbaijan
The Russian-Armenian-Azerbaijani summit in Kazan on June 24 was intended to be an event of greater significance than any of the long series of trilateral meetings that had much elaborated
Medvedev Speaks Against Putinism and Fails to Disprove Khodorkovsky
The annual economic forum in St. Petersburg is not known for quality debates and builds its reputation around a major political speech traditionally delivered by the leader or a candidate
Western Engagement Strategies Encourage Russia Not To Change
There has been a remarkable variety of engagements with the West for Russia last week, and it has achieved exactly what it wanted to achieve – nothing. Moscow played rounds
As Medvedev Fades Away, Russia Becomes a Major Issue
The G8 summit in Deauville, France last week was a forgettable event, and the series of bilateral high-level meetings on its margins added marginally to its insignificance; but the leaders
Medvedev’s Commitment to Partnership with the West Wears Thin
The long press-conference that President Dmitry Medvedev held on May 18 was disappointing for every journalist and expert who had expected meaningful and substantive answers on the big questions that
Putin Opts For Staging a Soviet-Style Election Campaign
Prime Minister Vladimir Putin has given the torpid election campaign in Russia an all too familiar direction with the suggestion, or rather the order, to build the Russian Popular Front
Moscow Strengthens Its Stance Against The Arab Revolutions
The “No” vote in the UN Security Council on the draft resolution condemning the use of force against the civilian population in Syria marked a significant shift in Russia’s position
Putin Reduces Modernization To “Steady, Uninterrupted Development”
The rhetoric of renovation and reinvigoration cultivated by President Dmitry Medvedev has been severely curtailed by Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, who presented to the State Duma last week the last
Competition Between Medvedev and Putin: Light Entertainment
Russia belongs among the fast-growing emerging economies and to the Asia-Pacific region – that was the message that President Dmitry Medvedev tried to deliver at the summit of the BRICS
Stalin’s Shadow Hangs Over Medvedev’s Modernization
One year ago, the plane carrying President Lech Kaczynski and scores of Polish officials crashed 100 meters from the runway hidden by dense fog in Smolensk oblast. On April 11,
Medvedev Tries To Rescue His Presidency
Political agitation in Russia reached a new high on March 30, during a routine meeting of the Commission for Modernization of Economy, where President Dmitry Medvedev instead of promising more
Putin’s Energy Games Turn Increasingly Erratic
As the US, French and British airstrikes are maintained on Libya, the recent major question about Russia’s reliability as energy supplier for Europe is becoming smaller. Prime Minister, Vladimir Putin,
US-Russian Economic “Reset” is Not Happening
The visit of US Vice-President, Joseph Biden, to Moscow last week created a resonance quite out of proportion to its agenda. The hard-won ratification of the START III treaty by
Medvedev’s Accolade To Reform and Freedom Rings Hollow
Russian history is always open to interpretation but it takes a brave effort to draw from it a lesson that “freedom cannot be postponed until later and we must not
The Kremlin Spins Conspiracy Theories Explaining Revolutions Away
The shockingly violent civil war in Libya has pushed the Russian leadership to re-evaluate the nature and the impact of the revolutions that keep shaking the Arab world. Worries in
Kudrin Promises the Return of Putin the Reformer
The main political sensation in Russia this week is Finance Minister Aleksei Kudrin’s statement that Russia needs fair and honest elections that would grant the authorities a mandate for executing
Moscow Learns to Play by Asia-Pacific Rules
The visit to Moscow by Japan’s Foreign Minister, Seiji Maehara, on February 11 did not lessen the diplomatic row between Russia and Japan that acquired a spectacular character during the
The Maidan on the Tahrir Square is Bad News for Putin
Russian mainstream media provides extensive coverage of the unfolding revolution in the streets of Cairo, in contrast with China where the word Egypt is banned from the news and blocked
Russian Politics Turns Towards Putin’s New Presidency
During the past month, President Dmitry Medvedev has turned into a disappearing and irrelevant figure in the Russian political arena. His lame-duck status was established beyond any reasonable doubt by
Medvedev Attempts to Rally Support in Davos for Russia’s “Modernization”
The privilege of addressing the opening session of the World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos is valued highly by the Russian President, Dmitry Medvedev, who interprets this as international recognition
Corruption Rules in Russia Despite Medvedev’s Exorcism
Russian President Dmitry Medvedev started the year that will decide his political fate by reviving his campaign against corruption, and on January 13 he chaired a meeting of the Anti-Corruption
Have Russia’s Rich-and-Powerful Become Tired of Mr. Putin?
In the first week of the New Year Russia started winding down on the vacation period, but Prime Minister, Vladimir Putin, was not shown on any ski slopes and remained
Russia Enters Year of Elections in the Shadow of a Shameful Verdict
The year 2010 could have been marked as “not-so-bad” in the still short annals of Russia’s post-Soviet history. It was the scorching summer heat and massive fires that would be
Medvedev Enjoys Foreign Policy “Successes”
Russian President, Dmitry Medvedev, has completed an unprecedented foreign policy marathon that started on October 19, with the a trilateral meeting in Deauville with French President, Nicolas Sarkozy, and German
Russia Tries to Exploit European Disunity
The big surprise that rejoiced the vast majority of Russians last Friday was the decision by the International Federation of Football Associations (FIFA) to hold the 2018 World Cup tournament
Medvedev Highlights Possible Zastoi as Political System Decays
On November 30, President Dmitry Medvedev will deliver his annual address to parliament in a highly ritualized ceremony solemnly demonstrating loyalty and obedience to the “boss.” The triple irony of
Medvedev Adrift in a Sea of Economic Multi-polarity
The G20 summit in Seoul last week was outstanding in its intensity of divergences that this crisis-born institution sought to harmonize. The US unfortunate unilateralism in money-making and China’s shameless
Attempted Patriotic Boost in Russia Falls Flat
Last Sunday marked the 93rd anniversary of the Bolshevik revolution, which used to be the major official holiday in the Soviet Union and remains a date about which the Russians
Court Cases Loom Large over Medvedev’s Presidency
The vanity of various foreign policy affairs has preoccupied President Dmitry Medvedev since his informal summit with the leaders of France and Germany two weeks ago: he traveled to Vietnam
Merkel and Sarkozy Talk Shop with Medvedev
The trilateral summit between French President, Nikolas Sarkozy, German Chancellor, Angela Merkel, and Russian President, Dmitry Medvedev was advertised as an event of greater significance rather than just another cozy
Moscow Awaits Medvedev’s Choice
The appointment of a new mayor of Moscow after the abrupt dismissal of Yuri Luzhkov who had dared to challenge President Dmitry Medvedev’s suggestion that he resign quietly, remained the
Medvedev and Putin Travel Separate Economic Roads To Nowhere
The political crisis in Moscow, continuing after the dismissal of Mayor Yuri Luzhkov, dominated the Russian debates last week. Even President Dmitry Medvedev’s state visit to China was overshadowed by
Russia: Stuck in a Year of Events and Little Change
Last year was for Russia both extraordinarily hard and very unlucky –but it saw strikingly little economic reforms and practically no political development. Opinion polls show that a significant majority
Russian Foreign Policy Takes a Sensible Course on Iran and in the Arctic
Two shifts in Russian foreign policy attracted much international commentary last week: President Dmitry Medvedev’s decree on curbing military cooperation with Iran, and Prime Minister, Vladimir Putin, participating in an
Political Battle in Moscow Escalates to Self-Destructive Confrontation
Beleaguered Moscow Mayor, Yuri Luzhkov, has departed on a week-long vacation in Austria to celebrate his 74th birthday with his family, but the political confrontation around his hold on office
Putin and Medvedev Stage Contrasting Political Shows
Two high-profile international events occurred in Russia last week: on Monday, Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, held a traditional meeting with the Valdai club; and on Friday, President Dmitry Medvedev participated
Bombings in Moscow and the North Caucasus Strengthen the Siloviki
The shock of the double terrorist attack in Moscow metro on March 29 is subsiding, however the follow-up suicide explosions in Dagestan and Ingushetia confirm that the North Caucasus is
Medvedev Re-energizes Russian Caspian Policy in Baku
Russian President, Dmitry Medvedev, paid an official visit to Azerbaijan last weekend and added to all the protocol ceremonies an exchange of political gifts. Azeri President, Ilham Aliyev, wanted a
The Second Anniversary of the Russian “Victory” is Barely Noticed
Two years ago, Russian tanks stopped on the outskirts of Tbilisi before slowly rolling back to the devastated Tskhinvali, but nobody in Russia appears interested in celebrating or even reflecting
Hot Summer in Moscow Emerges as a Political Problem
For weeks, the main news in Russia has been the weather –this summer has set many new heat records– but since last Friday, forest fires have become its new focus.
Gorbachev Warns of Explosive Problems With Medvedev’s “Modernization”
Russian President, Dmitry Medvedev, concentrated on the European direction of his modernization-focused foreign policy last week, making working visits to Finland and Italy. Both countries are Russia’s close partners and
Medvedev Moots Russia-Germany “Modernization Alliance”
What made the annual Russian-German summit, held in Yekaterinburg last week, an event loaded with “innovative” symbolism, was President, Dmitry Medvedev’s, attempt to set Russia’s foreign policy on a new
The Russia-US “Reset” and Medvedev’s Non-Leadership
President, Dmitry Medvedev, can consider his visit to the US successful, but it was still not good enough to put relations on a sure footing. He enjoyed new gadgets in
Medvedev Attempts to Rationalize his “Modernization” Agenda
It is hardly a mystery for President Dmitry Medvedev that his “modernization” project is not going anywhere; it is, however, unclear whether this is an issue. Speaking at the St.
Putin Grows Confident on the Comeback Trail
For most of last week Prime Minister, Vladimir Putin, traveled to places he knows well and feels good about –Istanbul and Paris. These were neither tourist getaways nor business trips;
Medvedev’s Visit Shows Slackening of Russian-German Special Relationshp
In official reporting, there was nothing unusual about President, Dmitry Medvedev’s, working visit to Germany last weekend, except perhaps the rather short notice. German Chancellor, Angela Merkel, greeted him in
EU Disappointed by Medvedev’s “Modernization”
The 25th Russia-EU summit this week in Rostov-on-Don had a new format as the President of the European Commission, Jose Manuel Barroso, was for the first time accompanied by the
The Iranian Trap for Medvedev’s Opportunistic Foreign Policy
The draft resolution on new sanctions against Iran introduced by the US at the UN Security Council last Tuesday has caught Moscow in a trap set primarily by its own
Medvedev’s Ineffectual Foreign Policy Lacks Putin’s Firm Hand
Glitz and fanfare in foreign policy have been President, Dmitry Medvedev’s, main preoccupation since the Victory Day parade on May 9. After the back-to-back official visits to Syria and Turkey,
Medvedev Presides Over the Victory Day Celebrations and Condemns Stalin
Sixty five years normally would not be considered a significant anniversary, but Victory Day is special for all Russians, so every official fanfare was blown last weekend and military parades
Putin Declares Victory Over Crisis and Asserts Control of the Political Agenda
The procedure of reporting to the State Duma on the government’s performance is meant to be a tough examination, but Prime Minister, Vladimir Putin, turned it into an exhibition of
The Polish Revelation for Russia – and the Latin American Dream
Two distinct and remarkably dissimilar international events developed in parallel in Russian foreign policy over the last two weeks: rapprochement with Poland and networking in Latin America. The latter started
Russian Economy Failing to Modernize
In his first comment on the sudden explosion of violent conflict in Kyrgyzstan, President Dmitry Medvedev tersely observed that “the protests reflect an extreme disaffection with the incumbent authorities among
Bombings in Moscow and the North Caucasus Strengthen the Siloviki
The shock of the double terrorist attack in Moscow metro on March 29 is subsiding, however the follow-up suicide explosions in Dagestan and Ingushetia confirm that the North Caucasus is
Medvedev Struggles to Demonstrate Leadership in Combating Terrorism
The two terrorist attacks on the Moscow metro last Monday were certainly a shock to Muscovites, who had to re-live the nightmare of 2002-2004, when suicide bombings were a permanent
Putin’s “Long Decade” Continues Despite Medvedev’s “Modernization”
Last weekend marked the tenth anniversary of Vladimir Putin’s election as Russian president on March 26, 2000, while strictly speaking his “era” started with Boris Yeltsin’s surprise departure from the
Clinton Strives to Maintain the US-Russian “Reset”
US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton visited Moscow last week with the dual purpose of advancing the struggling negotiations on a new treaty to reduce strategic arsenals and participate in
Medvedev’s Euro-Modernization Hits the Corruption Wall
An interesting feature of President Dmitry Medvedev’s trademark idea of “modernization” is that each time it starts to work, he feels compelled to push the brakes and engage in back-pedaling,
Medvedev Discards the Ambition of “Energy Super-Power”
Upon his return from the trip to Paris last week, President Dmitry Medvedev held a meeting with Deputy Prime Minister, Igor Sechin, who is supervising the energy sector, and expressed
Could a Trip to Paris Re-Energize Medvedev’s “Modernization?”
President Dmitry Medvedev has commenced his state visit to France today, and over the next three days he will receive red carpet treatment and dine in style. There is certainly
Russia Finds Itself Passed its Security Prime
At the annual Munich security conference last weekend, Russia received as little attention as it had attracted at the Davos World Economic Forum in the previous week. The star presenter
Russia Cannot Learn Any Crisis Lessons and Lapses Into Putinism
During the annual World Economic Forum in Davos, delegates are not asking questions such as “who is Mr. Medvedev?” Or, “is it really the same Mr. Putin?” In fact, they
Medvedev Tries in Vain to Modernize Putin’s Political System
President Dmitry Medvedev has recently made several cadre decisions and political moves aimed at asserting his authority over the bureaucratic machine. Some of them fall disappointingly short of meeting demands
Russia Reflects on the Presidential Elections in Ukraine
The outcome of the first round of elections in Ukraine is fairly clear, despite the usual procrastination with confirming the results, but it could have more impact on Russia’s stalled
The Russian-Ukrainian Gas Truce: Far from a European Energy Peace
Europe is experiencing an exceptionally cold and snowy winter, but at least Russian gas is flowing at full volume through Ukraine and Belarus with no interruptions. Several times in the
Russia: Stuck in a Year of Events and Little Change
Last year was for Russia both extraordinarily hard and very unlucky –but it saw strikingly little economic reforms and practically no political development. Opinion polls show that a significant majority
Russia and NATO Explore the Limits of the “Agreeing to Disagree” Posture
The habitually derisive tone of reporting on NATO’s “aggressive intentions” and “deepening divisions” in the mainstream Russian media noticeably changed last week after the unexpectedly fruitful meeting of the NATO-Russia
Putin Reassures his Audience and Reduces Medvedev to Irrelevance
Vladimir Putin’s annual talk-show has set a new record as he kept answering questions from carefully selected “common” Russians for more than four hours last Thursday, habitually demonstrating a perfect
Strategic Countdown and Russia’s Escalating Instability
This week is the last in the life of the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START I) that was signed on July 31, 1991 by Presidents George Bush and Mikhail Gorbachev.
Medvedev Smiles to Europe, While Putin Stamps his Authority
The Russia-EU summit in Stockholm last week was hailed by commentators on both sides as friendly beyond expectations and the most successful in the long series of tense and content-free
Medvedev’s Quasi-Modernization Hits the Wall
President Dmitry Medvedev is today paying a very special visit to Germany in order to participate in celebrations that have more significance for contemporary Russia than he dares to admit.
Iranian “Litmus Test” for Medvedev’s Problem Free Foreign Policy
The style of Russia’s foreign policy has softened remarkably during the last year as President Dmitry Medvedev seeks to bring closure to the “episode” of the war with Georgia and
Medvedev’s Indecisiveness Permeates his Presidency
President Dmitry Medvedev made a surprisingly strong claim for leadership five weeks ago in his article “Go, Russia!” arguing that the country could only overcome the devastating recession by breaking
Medvedev and Putin Work on Repairing Their Dysfunctional Leadership
President Dmitry Medvedev and Prime Minister Vladimir Putin had a rare face-to-face meeting on the evening of September 30, about which no official information was provided apart from stating that
Gulf Widens Between Putin and Medvedev
The smooth performance of the power-sharing mechanism connecting President Dmitry Medvedev and Prime Minister Vladimir Putin has given way to grinding and clanking as their recent statements betray deepening disagreements.
Medvedev Issues a Bold Manifesto, While Putin Delivers a Stern Warning
The topic of power-sharing inside the rather peculiar duumvirate of President Dmitry Medvedev and Prime Minister Vladimir Putin has long since lost its news value, but in the last couple
Medvedev Pulls Germany into a Closer Partnership
On August 14 President Dmitry Medvedev held a short meeting with Chancellor Angela Merkel in his Sochi residence, and its agenda was rather unusual in the long annals of Russo-German
Ten Years at the Helm: Putin Holds a Photo Shoot and Visits Turkey
It appeared to be just another of ailing President Boris Yeltsin's oddities when on August 9, 1999 he appointed Vladimir Putin as prime minister and announced his support for this
Putin Opts for a Large Deficit and Small Investment 2010 Budget
Prime Minister Vladimir Putin made his cabinet agree on a budget for 2010 that contains few anti-crisis ideas and hardly fits into the directives on stimulating innovations issued by President
Medvedev Tries to Dress Foreign Policy Setbacks as Achievements
On July 26 President Dmitry Medvedev focused on foreign policy in his carefully staged interview for the NTV channel and duly praised his own successes in improving Russia's image as
Medvedev Tries Hard but Achieves Little in Foreign Affairs
Since the meeting with U.S. President Barack Obama in Moscow two weeks ago, President Dmitry Medvedev has been involved in a flurry of external activities from the G8 summit in
Agitation Over Obama’s Visit Betrays the Kremlin’s Nervousness
U.S. President Barack Obama's visit to Moscow which started a few hours ago as Air Force One landed in Vnukovo was awaited with such anxiety and generated so much commentary
Gazprom Stays the Course Under Putin’s “Manual Management”
Russian energy super-giant Gazprom has taken severe blows in the still-deepening recession, and the worst setbacks have happened in its most profitable market - the European Union. Various assessments show
Tremors Shake the Three Pillars of Putin’s Regime
Prime Minister Vladimir Putin signed a revised anti-crisis program for 2009 last week, asserting that the previous plan had been accomplished and setting the first priority on the fulfillment of
Russia Celebrates its National Day Facing an Uncertain Future
Russia's national day had all the necessary flags in the streets and a reception in the Kremlin, but few Russians see the point in celebrating the "Declaration on State Sovereignty"
Medvedev Promotes Intellectual Economy and Putin Resorts to Soviet Methods
On June 6-7 the Economic Forum in St. Petersburg had a far more somber atmosphere and a greatly reduced entertainment program than last year, when Russia was still portrayed as
Lukashenka Plays Hard Ball with Russian Leadership
On May 29 Belarusian President Aleksandr Lukashenka instructed his ministers not to "whine and weep" when things did not work out with Russia but to "look for better luck in
Putin Raises the Stakes in his Black Sea Gas Gamble
On May 16 while Moscow was captivated by the spectacle of the "Eurovision" song contest, Prime Minister Vladimir Putin escaped to Sochi to devote himself to gas politics. Italian Prime
Medvedev’s Presidency After the “Second Parade”
President Dmitry Medvedev marked the end of his first presidential year exactly the same way as he started - by presiding over the military parade on Red Square. There was,
Moscow Playing Hard-Ball in its Quasi-Partnership with NATO
The last thing that NATO needed on the eve of its controversial military exercises in Georgia was a mutiny, and that is exactly what happened yesterday. The details are still
Medvedev’s Macro-European Ambitions Ring Hollow
President Dmitry Medvedev paid a state visit to Finland last week anticipating a warm welcome on "safe ground," since it was with Russia's help that Finland started building its own
Medvedev Experiments With Liberalism as Economy Plunges
On April 15 President Dmitri Medvedev created a sensation by granting an exclusive interview to Novaya Gazeta, known, in his own words, for "not licking up" to anybody, and then
Gazprom Turns the Crisis Into an Opportunity -and a New Crisis
Russia's economy has achieved a modicum of stability after the meltdown that had spread with devastating force from the stock exchange to the financial sector and to industry. Prime Minister
Moscow Shows no Interest in Pushing a “Reset Button” in Relations With NATO
Anti-Americanism has noticeably mellowed in the Russian mainstream media since the London summit between presidents Barack Obama and Dmitri Medvedev. Some commentators emphasize that strategic arms control is the easiest
Russian Gas Offensive Tests EU Energy Plans
The intensity of energy-political conflicts in Europe has been subsiding since the Russian-Ukrainian "gas war" in January, but last week Moscow launched a new offensive aiming at three crucial targets:
Medvedev Fingers the ‘Reset Button’ but Preaches Anti-Americanism
Russian President Dmitry Medvedev received last Friday the Russian-American Public Dialogue Group co-chaired by Henry Kissinger and Yevgeny Primakov and confirmed that he was looking forward to the first meeting
Russian Anti-Crisis Policy Is Adrift Without Direction
Russia took part in two different economic forums last weekend where conflicting propositions for overcoming the global crisis were advanced. Moscow had little to contribute to any course. Finance ministers
Medvedev’s First Year Ends with Denials of the Need for Change
Last week marked a year since Dmitry Medvedev was elected Russia's third president, but he has few reasons to be satisfied with this start. There is nothing resembling a "Medvedev
Economic Catastrophe Propels Russia into an Identity Crisis
The economic crisis is affecting Russia worse than most developed or emerging economies, but its direct impact, such as the recession in industry that is expected to become even more
Russian Economy Slows Down, but Protest Activity Remains Feeble
The new economic data released by the Russian Federal Service of State Statistics (Rosstat) last week surprised even the doomsayer-economists, who have become the mainstream in this discredited profession. The
Putin Retains Initiative in the Gas Dialogue with Europe
The annual security conference held in Munich last weekend should have attracted the prime attention in Moscow, not least because U.S. Vice-President Joe Biden delivered the first presentation of the
Faced with a Crippled Economy, Putin Strikes a Conciliatory Tone at Davos
The annual World Economic Forum in Davos was a somber event this year. Its trademark bragging and success stories and the schmoozing among the rich-and-famous were overtaken by the scale
Russia’s Sinking Economy and Wandering Politics
The high-intensity but low-yield gas war with Ukraine allowed the Russian leadership to engage in the bargaining and blackmailing that it thrives on. Now that Prime Ministers Vladimir Putin and
Gazprom’s War Has Damaged Russian Interests
It was hardly a surprise when Prime Ministers Vladimir Putin and Yulia Tymoshenko, both dressed in black, solemnly announced an agreement to end the Russian-Ukrainian gas conflict in the wee
A War Like No Other: Putin Mishandles Another Gas Conflict
Two weeks after the traditional turn of the valve in the first minute of the new year, the disagreement between Russia and Ukraine over the trade and transit of natural
Russia’s Slow Start into a Post-Prosperity Year
The extra-long Christmas-New Year-Rozhdestvo (Orthodox Christmas) celebrations in Russia have been muted this season, and unmistakable anxiety stands in stark contrast to the exuberance that greeted the arrival of the
Medvedev Sorted Out the EU but Got Lost at the G-20
Russian President Dmitry Medvedev had been looking forward to last weekend, expecting nothing but joy from the back-to-back summits with the EU in Nice and the G-20 in Washington. The
Medvedev’s Speech Marked by Anti-Americanism and Comfort for the Bureaucracy
The presentation of President Dmitry Medvedev’s address to the Federal Assembly was grand and fascinating beyond the standards set by his predecessor Vladimir Putin, who humbly listened from the audience
Qaddafi and Zyazikov: Reality Checks for Russia’s Petro-politics
The vast tent that graced the Kremlin garden over the weekend was not a part of the preparations for President Dmitry Medvedev’s address to the parliament, which is scheduled, after
MEDVEDEV’S ADDRESS IS RETURNED FOR REVISIONS
A major presidential performance had been scheduled for last week in the Kremlin, but it was postponed indefinitely at the last possible moment and without any convincing explanation. President Dmitry
PUTIN’S CONSENSUS AMONG THE ELITE TESTED BY THE DEEPENING CRISIS
For the vast majority of Russians the idea of a global financial crisis remains entirely foreign and the shocking figures about the meltdown on the domestic stock exchange are meaningless.
RUSSIA COUNTS ITS BLESSINGS IN THE GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS
A distinct note of triumph is entering the statements of Russian officials on the scale and possible consequences of the global economic crisis. It is President Dmitri Medvedev who was
RUSSIA AND GERMANY RESTART THEIR SPECIAL PARTNERSHIP
The two-headed Russian leadership is seeking to demonstrate that the “issues” in their relations with key European countries caused by the Georgian “episode” have come to an end in less
RUSSIA ASSEMBLES ITS ALLIES AND PONDERS THE CONTENT OF ITS “PRIVILEGED INTERESTS”
The Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) has never amounted to much as an alliance which ties Russia with six post-Soviet states: Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan. Its summit
THE POST-WAR TRAJECTORY OF RUSSIA-EU NON-PARTNERSHIP
Very few features of the “five-day war” between Russia and Georgia testify to the proposition that common political sense prevailed over military opportunism: Russian tanks stopped outside Tbilisi; the Russian
RUSSIAN “TANDEMOCRACY” STUMBLES INTO A WAR
Moscow was disconcertingly taken by surprise with the sharp escalation of hostilities in South Ossetia last Friday. The most apparent part of the problem was the lack of leadership, as
DUUMVIRATE IS TESTED AS MEDVEDEV SPEAKS UP AGAINST PUTIN
On a routine trip to Smolensk Oblast last week, President Dmitry Medvedev rather uncharacteristically took a firm stance: “In our country it is very important what signals get sent. The
ECONOMIC FUNDAMENTALS ARE WORRISOME FOR THE MEDVEDEV-PUTIN “TANDEMOCRACY”
The experimental power-sharing construct in Russia with authoritative Vladimir Putin as prime minister and very active Dmitri Medvedev as president has been working remarkably smooth so far, as the two
MEDVEDEV’S FOREIGN POLICY TAKES INDEFINITE SHAPE
President Dmitry Medvedev, after completely ignoring foreign policy issues on the election trail, has performed a high-intensity campaign of visits, speeches and meetings since late May, wrapping up this season
MEDVEDEV PRESENTS A GRAND DESIGN FOR FOREIGN POLICY
There were hardly any leaks about the preparation of a new Foreign Policy Concept in the Kremlin and certainly no debates on the drafts, so President Dmitry Medvedev achieved a
MEDVEDEV’S BUSINESS-TOUR YIELDS MORE PROMISES THAN FRUIT
President Dmitri Medvedev is apparently building strong momentum in his foreign policy activities, exploiting one success to achieve another. The remarkably cordial Russia-EU summit in Khanty-Mansiisk two weeks ago paved
MEDVEDEV’S SWEET-TALKING NARROWS THE RIFT IN RUSSIA-EU RELATIONS
President Dmitry Medvedev has every reason to consider the Russia-EU summit in Khanty-Mansiisk last week a personal success, judging from how his European partners have praised the friendly atmosphere and
A TRAP FOR MEDVEDEV IN THE TNK-BP CONFLICT
Political salons in Moscow are bubbling with rumors about President Dmitry Medvedev’s liberal agenda, but in a peculiar way, with Russia’s sports victories in ice hockey and football adding credibility
RUSSIA INSISTS ON TREATING SEVASTOPOL AS AN OPEN QUESTION
President Dmitri Medvedev has tried to make a positive impression on every foreign partner he has encountered in his first month in office, building an image of an open-minded, polite
MEDVEDEV TRIES TO GAIN TRUST IN EUROPE AND RESPECT IN THE CIS
President Dmitri Medvedev’s much-anticipated European debut was held in Berlin last week and was immediately followed by his presiding over a summit of the Commonwealth of Independent States in St.
THE PUTIN-MEDVEDEV DUO GETS BACK TO ENERGY BUSINESS
It might have appeared in the trying period of power-reformatting in Moscow, that political priorities were all over the place, from strategic bombers to nanotechnologies, and from small business to
PUTIN ENJOYS HIS MOVEABLE FEAST WITH NO WORRY ABOUT GEORGIA
Putin’s working visit to Paris last week was organized as if the French hosts wanted to emphasize that in their opinion the change of his political status was only a
THE NORTH CAUCASUS IS THE KEY SECURITY CHALLENGE FOR PRESIDENT MEDVEDEV
Virtually all the political talk in Moscow since the beginning of last week and, probably, for weeks to come, has been about the new appointments in the government and the
WILL PRESIDENT MEDVEDEV’S FIRST CRISIS BE GEORGIA?
Everything worked in perfect synch at President Dmitry Medvedev’s inauguration and at the Victory Day parade on Red Square, which gave the pompous ceremony a powerful conclusion. The heavy military
HOW MUCH WILL EUROPE MATTER FOR MEDVEDEV?
The anguish in the Kremlin corridors as the hyper-presidential system of power is being reformatted into an experimental two-headed form is hard to overestimate. Just a few days before the
PUTIN PACKS HIS BAGS BUT MEDVEDEV STILL BIDES HIS TIME
Russia has effectively closed down for the long holidays as the Orthodox Easter comes close to May Day, which opens the traditional week of dacha spring works to be concluded
MOSCOW HAS LITTLE SUCCESS IN EXPANDING ITS ROLE IN THE MIDDLE EAST
With the NATO problem deferred and only two weeks to go in the office, President Putin has shifted his attention to a region that is also a major point of
PUTIN SEEKS TO REAFFIRM CONTROL OVER DISGRUNTLED SILOVIKI
The colorful notion of the siloviki – power-wielders or men-of-power – that just a year ago seemed to convey an essential characteristic of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s regime, has all
IT TAKES TWO RUSSIAN PRESIDENTS TO TANGO WITH U.S.
Pushing his ballot into the ballot box during Russia’s shamelessly fixed presidential elections on March 2, Dmitry Medvedev announced that he was feeling good because spring had arrived. At that
RUSSIAN ENERGY POLICY REMAINS UNDER PUTIN’S CONTROL
The purpose of a transitional period between a presidential election and the winner’s inauguration is to secure a smooth transfer of authority to the new leader and his team. Nothing
MEDVEDEV DARES NOT VENTURE INTO INTERNATIONAL ARENA
European leaders have been quick to check the attitude and indeed the authority of the Russian President-Elect Dmitry Medvedev. French President Nicolas Sarkozy was the first to call with congratulations
PUTIN’S PLAN PROGRESSES, BUT THE MEANING OF MEDVEDEV REMAINS OBSCURE
Elections are supposed to focus on the question of who wins, but Russia makes an exception: President Vladimir Putin’s re-election in early 2004 had no suspense at all. But with
PUTIN WARNS AGAINST “IMMORAL” WESTERN INTERFERENCE IN HIS “STRATEGIC” SPEECH
The fact that Russian President Vladimir Putin was going to deliver a major address last Friday, February 8, had been kept secret until the middle of the week, when regional
PRESIDENTIAL TRANSPLANTATION IN RUSSIA ENTERS FINAL PHASE
In less than a month 109 million Russian voters are going to elect a new president. But while the Russian political class has been anxiously anticipating the March 2 vote
NO RECKONING WITH REALITIES IN RUSSIAN ECONOMIC POLICY
The annual meeting of the World Economic Forum in Davos last week was an unusually somber affair. Anti-globalization protesters were conspicuous by their absence, but the schmoozing among the cosmopolitan
PUTIN AND MEDVEDEV OPEN THE BULGARIAN GATE FOR GAZPROM
Last week’s official visit to Bulgaria granted Russian President Vladimir Putin an opportunity to show that his power-transfer scheme worked impeccably, as the person standing next to him was Dmitry
WILL MEDVEDEV’S ASCENSION SOLVE GAZPROM’S PROBLEMS?
As Russia wraps up seasonal festivities with the Old Style New Year on January 13, it is beginning to acknowledge changes in the economic climate that are caused by a
MOSCOW RAISES STAKES IN IRAN GAME
In the last days of 2007, Moscow made several purposeful steps that barely registered in the West, where the Christmas break was already well underway. The first step was the
WHAT ROLE FOR SILOVIKI IN THE PUTIN-MEDVEDEV MARRIAGE?
The resolution of the protracted intrigue around the transfer of supreme political power in Russia appears to leave everybody happy. Dmitry Medvedev, the president-to-be, appeals to the electorate as someone
MOSCOW LAMBASTES WEST DURING ELECTION LULL
Russia has slipped into a distinctly anti-climactic mood since the December 2 parliamentary elections delivered exactly the result planned in the Kremlin. In hindsight the massive propaganda campaign appears to
RUSSIA HAS VOTED AS ORDERED, NOW WHAT?
The big political event that happened in Russia yesterday, December 2, can hardly be called “elections,” since few of the 60 million Russians who cast their vote really cared about
MOSCOW WITHDRAWS FROM EUROPEAN SECURITY SYSTEM
“We don’t need no arms control” – was the message enthusiastically chanted by Moscow last week. It could have been a week of constructive engagement with Europe, as Prime Minister
HIGH INFLATION REVEALS PUTIN’S MISTAKES
Russia may appear to be an island of tranquility in the sea of troubles that engulfed the world economy last week. Its stock market continues to rise, its banks are
PUTIN COMPARES U.S. MISSILE DEFENSE TO CUBAN CRISIS
Expectations before the regular meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and the EU leadership had set a new record low, and the summit in Mafra, Portugal, last Friday, October 26,
PUTIN HAS FEW ANSWERS FOR IMPORTANT QUESTIONS
Russian President Vladimir Putin has established an annual tradition of long, televised meetings where he answers carefully selected questions from “loyal subjects.” The session held on Thursday, October 18, had
INFIGHTING AMONG PUTIN’S SILOVIKI ESCALATES TO A “CLAN WAR”
Nothing has been left to chance in the latest, tightly controlled script for reformatting the political arena in Russia. Generously granting his consent to join the electoral list of the
MOSCOW MEASURES THE NEW WESTERN UNITY ON IRAN
International issues have been overshadowed during the last three weeks as the Russian governmental crisis triggered an avalanche of speculation that has swept aside two stale presidential hopefuls – First
RUSSIA GETS THE GOVERNMENT THAT WILL EASE PUTIN OUT
It took Russian President Vladimir Putin only a few hours to appoint a new prime minister after sacking the indifferent Mikhail Fradkov, who never was up to the job and
ZUBKOV: THE TAX MAN COMETH?
Just one week after Russian President Vladimir Putin’s surprise dismissal of the government, experts and commentators in Moscow still remain in the dark about the real meaning of this development.
RUSSIAN ELECTORAL SEASON OPENS LOW ON COMPETITION AND HIGH ON INTRIGUE
The publication of the presidential decree on holding elections to the State Duma on December 2 formally opened the electoral season in Russia, which should culminate in the inauguration of
MOSCOW LOOKS FOR OPENING TO PLAY SOLO IN THE MIDDLE EASTERN “QUARTET”
In the recent weeks, Russia has been remarkably self-assertive, suspending its participation in the CFE Treaty and sinking its flag in the North Pole, staging large-scale strategic exercises and putting
RUSSIAN FLAG STAKES ENERGY CLAIM AT NORTH POLE
Russia made big international waves last week with a successful Arctic expedition that combined scientific and geopolitical goals. The research ship Akademik Fedorov and the nuclear icebreaker Arktika left Murmansk
RUSSIAN SPECIAL SERVICES THRIVE IN QUASI-COLD WAR SETTING
Russian President Vladimir Putin’s pivotal role in running the country is beyond doubt for the vast majority of Russians, but the institution they see as the next in importance, according
MOSCOW ESCALATES DIPLOMATIC ROW WITH LONDON
Russian President Vladimir Putin has characterized the current deterioration of Russian-U.K. relations as a “mini-crisis” that would be overcome in the “interests of common sense.” In fact, however, this diplomatic
KREMLIN BRINGS FRENCH TOTAL ON BOARD GAZPROM’S SHTOKMAN PROJECT
Russian energy giant Gazprom created a double business sensation last Friday by signing an agreement with French oil “champion” Total on developing the Shtokman gas field in the Barents Sea.
RUSSIA WINS OLYMPIC BID, NOW MUST REALIZE AMBITIOUS PLANS
The fish that President Vladimir Putin caught while sailing with U.S. President George W. Bush and former president George H.W. Bush at Kennebunkport, Maine, turned out to be a lucky
ARMS CONTROL AS A “SAFE ISSUE” AT KENNEBUNKPORT
It has never been clear during the last few weeks whether there is a point to the informal July 1-2 meeting between Presidents George W. Bush and Vladimir Putin at
PUTIN TAKES THE CASPIAN ROAD TO KENNEBUNKPORT
Russia-U.S. relations show few signs of improvement in the last days before the eye-to-eye meeting between Presidents Vladimir Putin and George W. Bush in the informal atmosphere of the Bush
PUTIN HARVESTS POLITICAL DIVIDENDS FROM RUSSIAN ECONOMIC DYNAMISM
Russia’s economic performance cannot fail to impress even the most skeptical experts. The sustained growth that a year ago showed signs of slackening actually accelerated in the last quarter of
PUTIN SAILS THROUGH HIS LAST G-8 SUMMIT
As is usually the case, the weeks preceding the G-8 summit saw a dramatic escalation in tensions between Russia and other members of this elite club, in particular the United
ANTI-AMERICANISM IN PUTIN’S EUROPEAN MANEUVERING
Russian President Vladimir Putin has pursued a rather unconventional strategy preparing for the G-8 summit to be held in Heiligendamm, Germany, later this week. He held a series of meetings
RUSSIA-EU SUMMIT BRINGS MORE MISUNDERSTANDING AND MISTRUST
The only undisputable fact about the Russia-EU summit in Samara on May 18 was that it actually took place; whether that constitutes a positive result is open to interpretation. Even
PUTIN’S DOUBLE TRIUMPH NOT YET IN THE BAG
While Russian President Vladimir Putin has recently had serious disagreements with the United States and the European Union and bitter quarrels with Belarus and Ukraine, he has always been at
DOES PUTIN HAVE AN ARMS CONTROL AGENDA?
The wave of loud protestations in the West against Russian President Vladimir Putin’s “moratorium” on implementing the Conventional Forces in Europe (CFE) Treaty (1990/1999) has temporarily subsided, as the concerned
IN FAREWELL ADDRESS, PUTIN DISTRIBUTES OIL MONEY
It was the “moratorium” on implementing the Conventional Forces in Europe (CFE) Treaty, a largely symbolic gesture of little practical consequence, that captured Western attention in Putin’s address to parliament
ECONOMIC THINKING IN THE KREMLIN SHIFTS IN THE “MUNICH” DIRECTION
The organizers of the Russian Economic Forum in London never thought that the Kremlin would sanction their high-profile event. The 10th annual meeting, aimed at bringing together Western investors and
PUTIN’S STABILITY MELTS AS THE “DISCONTENTED” TAKE TO THE STREETS
At first glance, the event in Moscow that made much international news over the weekend was blown out of all proportions. A few thousand “radicals” tried to stage a march
RUSSIAN ECONOMIC DYNAMISM UNDERMINED BY “STATE CURSE”
The Russian economic boom continues to gain momentum, leading the Ministry for Economic Development and Trade (MEDT) to raise its growth forecast for the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2007
A BAD WEEK LEAVES PUTIN WITH ANOTHER 50 TO GO
Russia saw a truly macabre chain of disasters last week. On Saturday, March 17, a Tu-134 missed the runway and crash-landed in Samara, killing six passengers but miraculously not bursting
RUSSIA’S MILITARY PR PART OF KREMLIN INTRIGUES
After one month as Russia’s second first deputy prime minister, Sergei Ivanov is enjoying ample, uniformly positive media attention that will secure him higher numbers in opinion polls and expert
THE SHADOW OF FEBRUARY 1917 HANGS OVER PUTIN’S FINAL YEAR
Yesterday’s legislative elections in 14 regions of the Russian Federation have not been the focus of political debates in Moscow during the last few weeks. Rather, it was an historic
THE IRANIAN TEST FOR PUTIN’S NEW COURSE
The report on Iran’s nuclear program that Mohamed ElBaradei, director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), presented to the UN Security Council on February 22 presents an inescapable
PUTIN EXPANDS THE GOVERNMENT AND DEROGATES THE MILITARY
A huge bureaucratic surprise occurred in Moscow on February 15 when Russian President Vladimir Putin announced new appointments in the government, typically providing very little explanation for his sovereign decisions.
BIG BUSINESS IS INVITED TO THE KREMLIN FOR FRESH INSTRUCTIONS
Following Russian President Vladimir Putin’s well-established ritual of demonstrating his power to loyal subjects, his annual meeting with business leaders was far heavier on symbolism than on substance. Most of
PUTIN PLANS TO “STAY THE COURSE” FOR 2008
Russian President Vladimir Putin obviously enjoyed this year’s installment of his annual press conference. Held on February 1, the 2007 session set a new record of three and a half
PUTIN IS LOST BETWEEN EAST AND WEST, BUT MEDVEDEV SHINES IN DAVOS
Russian President Vladimir Putin was the guest of honor at the Independence Day parade in New Delhi last Friday, January 26, and was entertained by the traditional program including ceremonial
MOSCOW IS REMINDED THAT “WAR ON TERROR” IS NOT OVER
Unprecedented nation-wide preventive measures against a possible terrorist attack were introduced in Russia on Tuesday, January 16, on orders from Nikolai Patrushev, the head of the National Anti-Terrorist Committee (NAC).
PUTIN UPHOLDS NON-EXISTENT RULE OF LAW IN RUSSIA
The main news in Russia at the start of the new year comes, rather unusually, from the courts and law-enforcement agencies. At the top of the list is the arrest
U.S. SANCTIONS ROSOBORONEKSPORT OVER DEALS WITH IRAN
Russia is still mostly closed for business because of the extended Christmas holidays, but more bad news on its international standing is hardly a welcome gift. On January 6 the
RUSSIA IGNORES THE RIGA SUMMIT AND EXPECTS NATO TO FAIL IN AFGHANISTAN
Moscow was remarkably relaxed about the NATO summit held in Latvia’s capital, Riga, last week. Russian President Vladimir Putin even played with the idea of making an informal visit there
SUMMIT OF “TECHNICAL” DISAGREEMENTS AND DIMINISHING TRUST
The Russia-EU summit held in Helsinki, Finland, on November 24 was by no means loaded with expectations, thus it was hardly a disappointment. The central point of its pre-planned agenda
THE CHECHEN EXECUTION SQUAD COMES TO MOSCOW
On Saturday evening, November 18, machine-gun fire erupted on Leninsky Prospect in downtown Moscow. Special police forces and a bomb squad quickly arrived at the scene and discovered one fatality.
COULD CORRUPTION BE GOOD FOR RUSSIA?
The new Corruption Perception Index, published by Transparency International last week, put Russia in 121st place together with nine other states, including the Philippines and Rwanda. This ranking is one
THE RUSSIAN MARCH THAT WASN’T: MOSCOW AVOIDS A HOLIDAY POGROM
Political life in Russia, normally tightly controlled, last week focused on an event that was not ordered or sponsored by the authorities. The “Russian march,” a series of rallies planned
PUTIN TAKES “LIFE-IS-GOOD” APPROACH WITH RUSSIAN PUBLIC
Last Wednesday, October 25, Russian President Vladimir Putin held his annual live call-in television show. For three hours he answered questions from 10 specially arranged locations, from Nakhodka, near Vladivostok
RUSSIAN POLITICS AND ECONOMICS FACE AN ENERGY CRISIS
Russian President Vladimir Putin endured a most unpleasant dinner with the EU heads of state and top officials last Friday (see EDM, October 20). The day before he departed for
IS PUTIN BECOMING DESPERATE ABOUT BEING “BEST FRIENDS” WITH GERMANY?
Taking a short break from European affairs before a planned guest appearance at the EU summit in Lahti, Finland, tomorrow, October 20, Russian President Vladimir Putin has a moment to
PUTIN DOWNPLAYS ENERGY DIALOGUE IN PARIS
Russian President Vladimir Putin resumed his European engagements last week, traveling to Budapest and Paris; he also plans a sentimental trip to Dresden in mid-October. The atmosphere at the meetings,
CORRUPTION IN PUTIN’S SYSTEM BECOMES MURDEROUS
The first week after the September 13 murder of Andrei Kozlov, first deputy chairman of the Russian Central Bank, saw no breaks in the case. Investigators are still examining a
PUTIN’S AMBITIONS AND RUSSIA’S MILITARY FEEBLENESS
There was nothing particularly disturbing about the failed launch of the experimental Bulava (SS-NX-30) strategic missile from the Dmitry Donskoi submarine on the evening of September 7. Failures happen, and
RUSSIA WRAPPING UP ITS WAR AGAINST TERROR
The outstanding success of the British secret services in foiling a terrorist plot that could have claimed hundreds of lives did not fail to make headlines in the Russian media.
MOSCOW OUTRAGED BY U.S. SANCTIONS AGAINST TWO RUSSIAN COMPANIES
On the evening of Friday, August 4, the Russian Foreign Ministry published a statement that condemned in the strongest possible way the decision of U.S. State Department to introduce sanctions
MOSCOW QUIETLY RAISES ITS GAME IN THE MIDDLE EAST
Three weeks after the eruption of hostilities in Lebanon, Russia has remained uncharacteristically cautious and reserved. President Vladimir Putin took a very active stance in the debates on the conflict
AN INFORMAL FAREWELL TO THE DYSFUNCTIONAL COMMONWEALTH
There were plenty of good reasons to organize an informal top-level meeting of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) in Moscow last weekend. Old conflicts and new tensions dividing its
BUSH DOWNPLAYS “SOVEREIGN DEMOCRACY” AT PUTIN’S BARBECUE
The two-session summit between U.S. President George W. Bush and Russian President Vladimir Putin – dinner on Friday and working meeting on Saturday morning – was perhaps the most important
EVERYTHING READY FOR A CONTENT-FREE G-8 SUMMIT
The final countdown to the 2006 G-8 summit has begun. After months of heated debates, miles of memos, and tons of paperwork, after many rounds of preparatory talks among shrewd
WHAT “HOLY ALLIANCE” DOES PUTIN WANT TO AVOID?
Kidnappings and executions in war-torn Iraq are hardly a novelty, but last month Moscow had its first brush with the problem. On June 3, one Russian diplomat was shot dead
ENERGY SECURITY DOMINATES SUMMER SUMMIT SCHEDULE
In mid-June, the heads of one North American, some Eurasian, and most European states travel non-stop, seeking to patch holes in the laboriously spun networks of cooperation. Russian President Vladimir
RUSSIAN ECONOMIC PARADOXES AND THE POWER OF “STUPID MONEY”
Macroeconomic dynamics have dominated the political debates in Moscow in mid-June, while the frenzy of speculation about Vladimir Putin's third presidential term or identifying a possible successor has taken a
RUSSIA TAKES ANOTHER STEP AWAY FROM DEMOCRACY
Last Friday, June 9, the Russian State Duma approved legislation that would eliminate the voting option "against all" in the ballots provided for elections at all levels, from local to
USTINOV’S FIRING REVEALS CLAN MANEUVERING INSIDE KREMLIN
Russian President Vladimir Putin is known to have a penchant for surprise cadre changes that invariably leave experts second-guessing the move. His decision to sack Prosecutor-General Vladimir Ustinov, taken late
PUTIN’S FIGHT AGAINST CORRUPTION RESEMBLES MATRYOSHKA DOLL
The political buzz in Moscow in recent weeks has surrounded corruption, which, according to Prosecutor General Vladimir Ustinov, "has acquired the character of a national threat" (Vremya novostei, May 16).
RUSSIA’S VIRTUAL MILITARY MIGHT SHIELD AGAINST U.S. CRITICISM
Russian President Vladimir Putin's address to parliament last week was perhaps less interesting in its "how-to-spend" content than in what was left out. The secrecy around the drafting of the
AFTER VILNIUS, PUTIN HAS TO RECONSIDER HIS PROSPECTS
U.S. Vice President Dick Cheney used his speech at last week's conference in Vilnius to address Russia in a blunt new tone. Prior to the conference, Russian President Vladimir Putin's
NOT QUITE 100 YEARS OF CURTAILED RUSSIAN PARLIAMENTARISM
Last week both chambers of the Russian parliament gathered for a special session in St. Petersburg to mark the 100th anniversary of the opening of the first State Duma. Tsar
EUROPE CALLS GAZPROM’S BLUFF AND PONDERS ITS THREAT
The unprecedented exchange of public demarches between Gazprom and the EU last week left both sides dissatisfied and the issues muddled rather than clarified. The firm message issued by the
Shifting Battlefields of the Chechen War
The constant stream of “small bad news” from Chechnya and the North Caucasus creates the impression of a stagnant local war and a region-wide condition of “stable instability,” with smoldering
MOSCOW PUTS PR SPIN ON ITS SHRINKING NUCLEAR ARSENAL
Russia will complete the modernization of its land-based and sea-based strategic missiles in 2015-2020 and plans to deploy up to 2,000 nuclear warheads as prescribed by the current arms control
PUTIN’S FEAR OF ELECTIONS AND FEAR OF INVESTMENT
Every recent election in Europe has severed a connection with Moscow, allowing Russia to drift further and further away from the rest of the continent. Italy is the latest point
KREMLIN CASTS LONG SHADOW OVER RUSSIAN BUSINESS
Two dozen top Russian businessmen gathered in the Kremlin last week for the ritual annual meeting with President Vladimir Putin. The key feature of the two-hour long exchange was the
IVANOV TAKES CHARGE OF RUSSIAN MILITARY-INDUSTRIAL CONGLOMERATE
Russian Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov has appeared to be in political trouble since the start of the year. The traditional pompous celebrations of Defender of the Fatherland Day on February
QUARRELS IN THE GOVERNMENT FUELLED BY INFLATION AND INTRIGUE
The last two weeks produced many unusually loud and disagreeable exchanges in the Russian government. Prime Minister Mikhail Fradkov even questioned the "professional competence" of his ministers to perform their
MOSCOW COUNTS THE PROS AND CONS OF “SELECTIVE COOPERATION”
Until very recently the Kremlin dismissed the possibility that Washington might seriously reevaluate the format and style of its relations with Russia. At his extended press conference on January 31,
SELLING “ENERGY SECURITY” IN BUDAPEST AND PRAGUE
For many years Russia's European policy neglected the group of states from Slovenia to Poland that are now new EU members. These former "satellites" were perceived as intrinsically "Russia-phobic." Russian
KHRUSHCHEV’S SECRET SPEECH AND PUTIN’S PUBLIC PRAISE
Besides the Olympic headlines, in the last two weeks the Russian media has presented a remarkable variety of comments and reflections on an event that shocked the country 50 years
MOSCOW’S INITIATIVE: YOUR TERRORIST IS OUR DEAR GUEST
Russian President Vladimir Putin's official visit to Spain last week was not a great success. Spanish journalists asked too many direct questions, and senators at the closed-door meeting were not
PUTIN, GAZPROM, AND “THE OTHER NORWEGIAN COMPANY”
Russian President Vladimir Putin has every reason to be pleased with his performance at last week's press conference. For three and a half hours he confidently and smoothly handled a
RUSSIAN ECONOMIC BOOM GOES UNNOTICED IN DAVOS
This year's World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, featured many themes that could have benefited from a Russian perspective. From the "New Mindset for the UN" to "Europe's Identity Crisis"
RUSSIA STRUGGLES WITH COLD AND SHIVERS FROM ENERGY INSECURITY
For a second week Russia has been making international news even though its political life remains close to hibernation. Arctic air has spread over its vast territory, bringing bitterly cold
HAS MOSCOW TURNED ITS BACK ON TEHRAN?
The protracted, slow-moving intrigue around Iran's nuclear program accelerated sharply last week as the international seals on the research facility at Natanz were removed. The frustrated European "troika" -- France,
PUTIN PROTECTS ISLAM AND PRAISES DEMOCRACY IN GROZNY
The newly elected Chechen parliament held its first session on Monday, December 12, and the big surprise was the unscheduled appearance of Russian President Vladimir Putin (Vremya novostei; Kommersant, December
MOSCOW VOTES FOR LUZHKOV AS RIVALRY WITH PUTIN INTENSIFIES
On Sunday, December 4, Muscovites elected the members of their City Duma. Elections of this kind usually attract so little attention from voters that the minimum turnout was set at
SERGEI IVANOV’S PR CAMPAIGN ROLLS OVER ONE JOURNALIST
Russian Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov is known to be one of the closest aides to President Vladimir Putin, a founding member of the inner circle where key decisions are prepared
PUTIN’S BUREAUCRATIC RESPONSE TO RUSSIA’S ECONOMIC MISBALANCE
For Russian President Vladimir Putin, the long trip to Busan, South Korea, to the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum summit was quite problem-free, since Russia has no stake in the
PUTIN’S RUSSIA AS AN UNCERTAIN PROPOSITION
The presentation of the first annual Failed States Index – a joint project of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and the Fund for Peace – provided considerable fodder for
NEWLY RUSSIAN INVENTED HOLIDAY BECOMES A DAY OF NAZI UNITY
The good Soviet tradition of marching in early November acquired a new and disturbing twist this year. The Communist demonstrations on November 7 were quite unimpressive in Moscow and close
PUTIN PERFORMS A EUROPEAN PIROUETTE
A visit to the Netherlands on November 1-2 provided Russian President Vladimir Putin with a timely opportunity to re-establish his European credentials. The previous week had a distinct Asian flavor
THE RUNAWAY TRAWLER AND RUSSIA’S WOUNDED PRIDE
Throughout last week, the Russian public was transfixed by the flight of the trawler Elektron, which defied orders from the Norwegian Coast Guard and fled to Murmansk. This TV "reality
GAZPROM LOSES ITALIAN DEAL, CORRUPTION COULD CAUSE MORE UPSETS
The deal signed in May this year between Gazprom and the Italian firm ENI was supposed to be path breaking: For the first time, the Russian energy giant would receive
WAS IT MOSTLY IRAN THAT RICE DISCUSSED WITH LAVROV AND PUTIN IN MOSCOW?
The content and the outcome of U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice’s “emergency” visit to Moscow last Friday and Saturday remain clouded by diplomatic smoke and mirrors. That overnight stay
NOBEL COMMITTEE SENDS WARNING TO THE RUSSIAN MILITARY
The Kremlin approved wholeheartedly the "exceptionally right decision" to award the 2005 Nobel Peace Prize to the International Atomic Energy Agency and Director-General Mohamed ElBaradei, noting particularly that "he does
STATE BUDGET POSES RISKS FOR RUSSIAN ECONOMY
Last week 11 leading Russian economic experts sent a letter to Prime Minister Mikhail Fradkov warning about the possible – and possibly grave – negative economic consequences from the planned
PUTIN PRAISES STABILITY AND PROMISES PROSPERITY
Yesterday, September 27, Russian President Vladimir Putin spent nearly three hours answering questions from Russians who had gathered in specially organized studios across the country. The questions had been carefully
IN GREAT HASTE KHODORKOVSKY FOUND GUILTY, GETS ONE YEAR LESS THAN SENTENCED
Late in the evening of September 22, the Moscow city court announced its verdict on the appeal to revisit the case of Mikhail Khodorkovsky and Platon Lebedev, who had been
LACKING SUBSTANCE, MOSCOW PREFERS TO TALK TERRORISM
The huge gathering of world leaders under the UN flag last week was generally disappointing, but for Russian President Vladimir Putin it worked out just fine. Moscow is quite content
GAZPROM’S NEW EUROPEAN ROUTE: CRY UKRAINE?
Russian President Vladimir Putin's brief visit to Berlin last week was not only perfectly timed for the German elections but also loaded accordingly: He delivered a valuable gift to his
POURING OIL MONEY OVER STAGNATION AND DISCONTENT
Hurricane Katrina forced the United States and the European Union to open their strategic oil reserves, but Moscow is confident that the dip in prices is only a minor deviation
RUSSIA’S REGIONS: NEVER-ENDING RESHUFFLING WITH DIMINISHING RETURNS
Russian President Vladimir Putin may be having second thoughts about his decision to cancel regional elections and appoint governors with only pro forma confirmation by respective parliaments. Just a year
MOSCOW DODGES IRAN’S NUCLEAR OFFENSIVE
The European troika (France, Germany, and the UK) was clearly taken by surprise last week by Iran's determined drive to resume its uranium enrichment program. Their proposal, delivered to the
PUTIN’S SINKING PRESIDENCY: WHAT EFFICIENCY?
Last week saw a significant shift of emphasis in the unseasonably hot political commentary in Moscow: It was not whether but how Vladimir Putin will secure a third presidential term
DISENTANGLING THE MOSCOW-BERLIN AXIS: FOLLOW THE MONEY
Russian foreign policy under Vladimir Putin’s presidency has been generally undetermined and often opportunistic with only one constant: strategic partnership with Germany. This country definitely occupies the central place in
THE SILENCE OF THE SILOVIKI: HAVE THEY LOST PUTIN’S TRUST?
By mid-July, the political season in Russia should be over, but the intensity of expert commentary is so high now that one might think that parliamentary elections are just half
PUTIN’S AGENDA PREVAILS AT THE G-8 SUMMIT: IT IS TERRORISM, COMRADES!
From Moscow's point of view, the content of this year's G-8 summit was supposed to be totally unexciting, if not completely irrelevant. Aid to Africa is of no interest for
THE PRESIDENTIAL VERTICAL ECONOMY AND THE OIL SHOWER
Russian economic policy has never been so entertaining as in recent weeks, particularly in comparison with the dull and monotonous political discourse. Every weekly meeting of the government delivers a
RUSSIA DEFLECTS EUROPEAN CRITICISM WITH THE PRETENCE OF SELF-ISOLATION
The traditional "Russia day" at the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe is always a lively affair, but last Wednesday, June 22, it came close to full-blown scandal. The
CHUBAIS SURVIVES YET AGAIN, BUT THE PROSPECTS FOR HIS REFORMS ARE NOT GREAT
In Russian politics, there is no other individual -- except, certainly for Vladimir Putin -- that triggers so much emotional reaction as Anatoly Chubais. Many impoverished Russians hold him personally
SERGEI IVANOV CHALLENGES THE NEW POLITICAL GENERATION
After four years on the job, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov has no impressive record of achievements. His most important "victory" happened some eleven months ago when Anatoly Kvashnin, the
RUSSIA’S SHRINKING HORIZONS OF ECONOMIC PLANNING AND POLITICAL PLOTTING
Hardly anybody in Russia misses the rigid Soviet pattern of five-year plans, but many Russians are growing uncomfortable about the chaotic play of market forces. Putin's plan to strengthen central
PUBLIC SENTIMENT TURNS TOWARD KHODORKOVSKY, WHILE PUTIN GRAPPLES WITH BLACKOUT
On May 16, a Russian court began reading the verdict in the trial of Mikhail Khodorkovsky, owner of the destroyed oil giant Yukos, and his partner, Platon Lebedev. By the
MOSCOW IS UNIMPRESSED BY PUTIN’S CELEBRATIONS
The long-heralded celebrations of the 60th anniversary of Victory Day are finally over, and many Muscovites find themselves with an odd aftertaste. The event that was supposed to be both
NUCLEAR PROLIFERATION MEETS ADMINISTRATIVE CORRUPTION IN RUSSIA
The surprise arrest in Switzerland of Yevgeny Adamov, former head of the Russian Ministry on Nuclear Energy (MINATOM), has sent shock waves across Russia's vast bureaucracy. A federal grand jury
IDLE PETRO-RUBLES ARE A RECIPE FOR STAGFLATION
Russia's economy is growing at a pace that invites envy from most European states. The ruble holds steady against the dollar, and Russia's trade balance for the first quarter of
WAS THE RICE-LAVROV QUARREL REALLY ABOUT BELARUS?
Russian President Vladimir Putin's annual state of the nation address, given April 25, was remarkable for one glaring omission. It was quite surprising that Putin did not say one word
PUTIN SEEKS TO ASSERT CONTROL WITHOUT LEADERSHIP
Aides and speechwriters for Russian President Vladimir Putin are now putting the final touches on his annual address to the Federal Assembly due to be delivered by the end of
AS CHECHNYA BRACES FOR NEW VIOLENCE, PUTIN RETREATS INTO DENIAL
Russian President Vladimir Putin spent the last days of March in his summer residence in Sochi, and the first guest to be invited was Chechen President Alu Alkhanov. The official
THE NORTH CAUCASUS SLIPS OUT OF CONTROL
The collapse of Askar Akayev's regime in Kyrgyzstan, so similar to the events in Georgia or Ajaria, has reinvigorated the debates simmering in Moscow since the Orange Revolution in Kyiv:
PUTIN’S RESIDUAL EUROPEANISM AND CREEPING SELF-ISOLATION
The Russian media paid about as much attention to President Vladimir Putin's weekend visit to Paris than it did to his meeting with the victorious team from the Paris-Dakar road
Putin’s Team in Disarray Over Oil Money
Yet another quarrel between Gazprom and Rosneft, Russian state-owned energy companies that are due to merge but cannot agree on conditions, hardly qualifies as news (Financial Times, March 16). Their
WILL PUTIN PULL THE PLUG ON THE CIS?
Observing the bitter disputes around Russian military bases in Georgia, sour demarches in the State Duma against Moldova, and icy diplomatic exchanges between Russia and Ukraine, it is hard to
MOSCOW INSISTS ON SEEING NO EVIL IN IRAN
Russia's position on Iran, as presented by President Vladimir Putin to President George W. Bush in Bratislava and by Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov to the EU "troika" in Luxembourg, is
IS EUROPE TOO SMALL FOR BOTH BUSH AND PUTIN?
"Disappointing" may be the common post-mortem on the Bratislava summit, but it would still be unfair to call the meeting a non-event. Reviewing the unresolved issues, it is now possible
CAN RUSSIA TAKE ITS PLACE IN THE G8 FOR GRANTED?
International financier George Soros has once again shown his unique talent as a newsmaker. In an interview with the Austrian Die Presse, he suggested expelling Russia from the G8 due
GAZPROM’S CRISIS OF OVERGROWTH
Gazprom, Russia's almighty monopoly producer, distributor, and exporter of natural gas, is in serious trouble. Its directors' meeting on January 26 was expected to reveal the bitter disagreements about the
PUTIN’S ERODING SUPPORT BASE
Putin's extraordinary approval ratings have become a constant in the multi-variable equations of Russian politics; it is quite possible that they would remain up in the 60% range even after
MISSILES FOR SALE : MOSCOW FINDS NO PROBLEM WITH SYRIA
As Russians returned to work following the extended New Year's holidays, the repercussions from a major arms-export deal began to be felt. Following a surprise cabinet meeting on January 2,
WHAT IS WRONG WITH ANDREI ILLARIONOV?
Russian President Vladimir Putin clearly wanted to have the last word about the year 2004. First he shifted his "traditional" lengthy press conference to December 23, and then he confidently
CHECHNYA: FROM YELTSIN’S MISTAKE TO PUTIN’S FAILURE
Ten years ago, Russia was slowly slipping into a quagmire, which seemed shallow at the time but proved to be a bottomless "black hole." Seeking to cover one miscalculation with
GREED, GAZPROM, AND GREF: THE MAKING OF A SUPER-MONOPOLY
In the first days of December, the Russian government planned to review Gazprom's performance and approve its investment program for 2005. The agenda for the meeting, however, was changed at
NEEDING A SCAPEGOAT FOR FIASCO IN UKRAINE, MOSCOW SLAMS OSCE
Russian President Vladimir Putin engages in political and diplomatic battles over Ukraine as if it is his personal Stalingrad. Many liberal or just moderately independent commentators in Moscow argue that
A TALE OF TWO INDEXES: SHIFTS IN INVESTMENT ACTIVITY SLOWS RUSSIAN GROWTH
Russia's investment climate is undergoing profound changes, but expert opinions about the direction of these changes differ far more than traditional quarrels between economic schools should warrant. In mid-November Fitch
PUTIN’S “WONDER” MISSILES: BLUFF, THREAT, OR PEP TALK?
While Russian President Vladimir Putin made public appearances throughout the third week of November, he has little to show for his efforts. He addressed the annual congress of Russian businessmen,
THE BERLIN WALL AND RUSSIA’S VERTICAL POWER STRUCTURE
Thousands-strong columns marched through all major Russian cities on November 7, celebrating the Great Socialist Revolution of 1917, perhaps for the last time. The State Duma is due to approve
PUTIN AND BERLUSCONI: AN ODD FRIENDSHIP BETWEEN PRESIDENT BUSH’S BEST FRIENDS
As President George W. Bush anxiously awaited the outcome of the Ohio vote count, two of his most prominent fans -- Vladimir Putin and Silvio Berlusconi -- were rooting for
PUTIN SETS NEW GOALS FOR RUSSIA’S NATIONAL IDENTITY
At the core of its national identity, Russia is neither a nuclear super-power nor a spoiled petro-state, but a country of hopeless football fans. The Soviet leadership sought to measure
WHAT HAS HAPPENED TO RUSSIA’S ECONOMIC POLICY?
Russia has seen controversial political initiatives, acute security crises, and bitter electoral battles in the last half-year. What it has not seen is a series of consistent economic steps or
THE DESTRUCTION OF YUKOS AND PUTIN’S ESTRANGEMENT FROM THE WEST
Vladimir Putin has never been a man of second thoughts, but these days he might reflect on his year-old decision to put Mikhail Khodorkovsky behind bars without much joy. The
PUTIN ASSERTS THAT TERRORISTS SEEK BUSH’S ELECTORAL DEFEAT
Russian President Vladimir Putin had a busy international schedule in mid-October, meeting in Moscow with Canadian Prime Minister Paul Martin and Brazilian Vice-President Jose Alenkar, followed by a full-scale official
GEORGIA CHALLENGES THE KREMLIN’S WORLDVIEW
The October 3 presidential election in Abkhazia has produced a far greater reaction in the Russian media than the scale of Russia's involvement in this Georgian separatist region or indeed
TWO SOUTHERN FAILURES: THE SECOND CHECHEN WAR AND THE “DEAL OF THE CENTURY”
In late September, two remarkable anniversaries passed nearly unnoticed in Moscow. On September 20, 1994, the first contract on developing Caspian oilfields was signed between the government of Azerbaijan and
MOSCOW CONVENIENTLY FORGETS CHECHNYA
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov was certainly in his element at the UN General Assembly last week, packing a full schedule of meetings and delivering a hard-hitting speech. Admittedly, he
Putin’s New Course: Maximizing Control And Sacrificing Efficiency
This week Moscow issued two landmark announcements. On Monday (September 13), President Vladimir Putin unveiled a radical restructuring of the political system that greatly increases executive authority. One day later,
Russian Preventive Strikes — Options And Capabilities
When General Yuri Baluyevsky, the new chief of the Russian General Staff, declared on September 8 that Russia could deliver preventive strikes on terrorist bases anywhere in the world, most
Moscow Seeks To Control Spin On The Beslan Tragedy
Russian President Vladimir Putin's September 4 address to the nation after the horrific resolution of the hostage crisis in Beslan galvanized Russian diplomacy into action. One of the first steps
The European Troika Meets In Sochi
On the last day of summer, French President Jacques Chirac and German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder visited Russian President Vladimir Putin at his vacation residence, Bocharov Ruchei, near Sochi. Their discussions
PUTIN THE PACIFIST?
By Pavel K. Baev Despite all the excitement the Second Gulf War is generating, it may be worthwhile to take a moment to reflect on the desperate maneuvering that took
A USEFUL WAR?
By Pavel Baev Last week Vladimir Putin issued orders for a constitutional referendum to be held in Chechnya, paving the way for presidential and parliamentary elections there. However, fighting in
THE CIS: REFUSING TO FADE AWAY
By Pavel Baev The Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), created hastily in late 1991 as the Soviet Union was falling apart, is such an obvious failure as an integration project
AS CHECHNYA BRACES FOR NEW VIOLENCE, PUTIN RETREATS INTO DENIAL
Russian President Vladimir Putin spent the last days of March in his summer residence in Sochi, and the first guest to be invited was Chechen President Alu Alkhanov. The official
Shifting Battlefields of the Chechen War
The constant stream of “small bad news” from Chechnya and the North Caucasus creates the impression of a stagnant local war and a region-wide condition of “stable instability,” with smoldering